Table 1.

Model selection results for breeding Adélie penguin survival

Model	ΔQAICc*	K	QAICc wt	QDeviance
S(B = C,R + t)	0.00	88	0.61	1,126.46
S(B,C,R + t)	1.64	89	0.27	1,126.04
S(B,C = R + t)	4.30	88	0.07	1,130.76
S(t)	5.42	87	0.04	1,133.93
S(B = R,C + t)	7.16	88	0.02	1,133.62
S(.)	47.88	80	0.00	1,190.78

Model selection results for five best models relating colony (B, Cape Bird; C, Cape Crozier; R, Cape Royds), general time-dependence (t), linear (T), pseudothreshold (lnT), and quadratic (TT) time trends, the presence of the iceberg (Ice), and the effect of ice cover late into the nesting season (Ice2) to apparent survival (S) of breeding Adélie penguins at three colonies in a Ross Sea meta-population during 1996–2007. Models were ranked according to Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and overdispersion (QAIC_c). The model deviance, number of parameters (k), ΔQAIC_c, and QAIC_c weights are given for all models. The best structure for resighting rates was retained from a previous model step [p (B,C,R + t)], and a general structure on movement probabilities [psi (B,C,R + t)] was included while modeling survival. A model that included no effect on survival (.) was included for comparison. An equal sign means that colonies were combined, and a comma indicates that they were modeled separately. Asterisks denote interactions, and plus signs denote additive effects.

*Lowest QAIC_c = 7,779.12.