Table 2.

Structure of the face-to-face elicitation protocol used in this study

1.	Briefing on issues involved in making judgments about uncertainty, focusing particularly on the large body of evidence on systematic overconfidence among lay and expert respondents.
2.	Introduction and discussion of the three hypothetical trajectories of future radiative forcing (Fig. 1).
3.	Discussion of the relative importance of factors that influence the expert’s judgments about uncertainty in the transient climate response.
4.	Exploration of whether, and at what level of forcing, the climate system might undergo a state change in the climate system given varying levels of forcing in 2200.
5.	Probabilistic judgments about the amount of warming resulting from alternative plausible future levels of forcing.
6.	Discussion of whether and how the expert’s uncertainty about transient response might change as a function of future research.
7.	Probabilistic judgments about the value of classic climate sensitivity.
8.	Although not reported in this paper, the elicitation closed with a series of questions about the feasibility of downscaling climate variables for 11 specific geographical regions.

The full interview protocol is reproduced in the SI Appendix.