Table 3.
Experts’ average ranking of physical processes influencing uncertainty in the global mean surface air temperature response to the three forcing scenarios displayed in Fig. 1
| Rank | Medium scenario | High scenario | Low scenario |
| 1 | Cloud radiative feedback | Cloud radiative feedback | Cloud radiative feedback |
| 2 | Sea-ice albedo feedback | Land-ice and snow albedo feedback | Sea-ice albedo feedback |
| Land-ice and snow albedo feedback | Water vapor feedback | Land-ice and snow albedo feedback | |
| 3 | Water vapor feedback | Vertical/diapycnal ocean mixing | Deep water formation |
| Deep water formation | Vegetation albedo feedback | Ocean circulation (wind-driven and thermohaline) | |
| Ocean circulation (wind-driven and thermohaline) | Ocean circulation (wind-driven and thermohaline) | Water vapor feedback | |
| Vegetation albedo feedback | Deep water formation | Vegetation albedo feedback | |
| Lapse rate feedback | Sea-ice albedo feedback | Lapse rate feedback | |
| Vertical/diapycnal ocean mixing | Lapse rate feedback | Vertical/diapycnal ocean mixing | |
| 4 | Atmospheric convection and precipitation | Soil moisture | Atmospheric convection and precipitation |
| Horizontal/isopycnal ocean mixing | Large-scale atmospheric circulation | Soil moisture | |
| Soil moisture | Horizontal/isopycnal ocean mixing | Large-scale atmospheric circulation | |
| Ocean eddies | Atmospheric convection and precipitation | Horizontal/isopycnal ocean mixing | |
| Large-scale atmospheric circulation | Ocean eddies | Ocean eddies |
Although the mean ranking of individual processes is sensitive to the ordering procedure used (details in SI Text), four sets of processes could be identified for each scenario whose ordering is independent on the specific procedure. Within each set, the processes are ranked according to the first ordering procedure described in SI Text.