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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2011 Jul 12.
Published in final edited form as: Vaccine. 2010 May 16;28(31):4875–4879. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.05.002

Table 3.

Effects of Different Vaccination Scenarios (R0 = 1.3)

DC Metro Area
 United States
Serologic Attack Rate
 Hospitalizations
 Costs ($US Billion)
 Hospitalizations
 Costs ($US Billion)
Scenario Total At Risk Total At Risk Third Party Payer Productivity Societal Total At Risk Third Party Payer Productivity Societal
No Mitigation 30.1% 25.1% 6,518 1,330 0.06 1.52 1.58 267,312 54,541 2.45 62.39 64.84
Vaccinating ACIP Priority 22.5% 17.9% 4,187 3,002 0.04 1.14 1.18 171,686 123,126 1.73 46.72 48.46
Allowing Varying Percentages of non-ACIP Priority into Queue
25% non-ACIP Priority 22.9% 18.6% 4,299 3,076 0.04 1.16 1.20 176,295 126,144 1.77 47.63 49.40
50% non-ACIP Priority 23.3% 19.1% 4,414 3,183 0.04 1.18 1.22 181,026 130,520 1.81 48.33 50.14
75% non-ACIP Priority 23.6% 19.5% 4,483 3,237 0.04 1.20 1.24 183,827 132,759 1.83 49.09 50.93
100% non-ACIP Priority 24.1% 20.0% 4,642 3,380 0.05 1.22 1.27 190,357 138,611 1.88 50.04 51.92
ACIP Priority with 18 year old cut-off instead of 24 year old
18 year old cut-off 22.7% 17.9% 4,167 2,981 0.04 1.22 1.26 170,880 122,242 1.57 50.00 51.57
Prioritizing Different Age Groups over ACIP Priority Groups
0 to 24 year olds 21.5% 18.3% 4,223 3,105 0.04 1.19 1.23 173,181 127,323 1.52 49.00 50.52
5 to 11 year olds 21.3% 18.0% 4,095 2,979 0.04 1.19 1.22 167,915 122,154 1.50 48.68 50.18
25 to 49 year olds 22.7% 18.8% 4,308 3,120 0.04 1.26 1.31 176,677 127,946 1.77 51.80 53.57
50 Years and above 24.5% 19.7% 4,538 3,260 0.05 1.36 1.41 186,092 133,673 2.02 55.97 57.99
Vaccinating ACIP Priority with Varying Coverage
20% Vaccine Coverage 21.7% 17.5% 4,076 2,923 0.04 1.10 1.14 167,155 119,849 1.68 45.09 46.77
40% Vaccine Coverage 30.1% 25.1% 6,518 1,330 0.06 1.52 1.58 267,312 54,541 2.45 62.39 64.84
60% Vaccine Coverage 23.3% 17.7% 4,155 2,971 0.04 1.18 1.22 170,388 121,834 1.77 48.41 50.18
80% Vaccine Coverage 23.9% 19.1% 4,427 3,152 0.04 1.21 1.26 181,538 129,259 1.84 49.64 51.48
Prioritizing Within ACIP Priority
At-Risk Patients First 23.2% 17.1% 4,050 2,799 0.04 1.17 1.22 166,074 114,799 1.75 48.18 49.93
Age Groups First 21.3% 18.0% 4,180 3,056 0.04 1.08 1.12 171,419 125,330 1.67 44.24 45.92