Table 2.
Parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit measures for parametric survival models of the extrinsic incubation period of yellow fever
| Model | Constant parameter | Dependent parameter | Regression coefficients | Extrinsic incubation period at 25ºC (95% CI*) | DIC | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notation | Value (95% CI*) | Notation | Value (95% CI*) | β0 (95% CI*) | β1 (95% CI*) | |||
| Exponential | – | – | rate (λi) |  |
4.6 (3.7–5.4) | −0.07 (−0.11 to −0.04) | 16 (13–20) | 182 |
| Gamma | shape (v) | 2.7 (1.5–4.2) | rate (λi) |  |
4.2 (3.7–4.8) | −0.064 (−0.086 to −0.043) | 14 (12–17) | 175 |
| Weibull | shape (v) | 1.7 (1.3–2.2) | rate (λi) |  |
−7.6 (−9.9 to −5.4) | 0.11 (0.06–0.16) | 14 (12–17) | 173 |
| Log-normal | precision (τ) | 2.2 (1.2–3.6) | mean (μi) |  |
1.4 (1.2–1.6) | −0.022 (−0.030 to −0.014) | 12 (10–14) | 174 |
*
95% credible interval.