Table 2.
Parameter estimates for CRC incidences for the US and UK
| Men |
Women |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proximal Colon | Distal Colon | Rectum | Proximal Colon | Distal Colon | Rectum | |
| US (SEER) | ||||||
| Adenoma initiation rate (μ0Xμ1P∞) | 10.42e-05 (9.39e-05, 10.82e-05) | 6.37e-05 (6.00e-05, 6.57e-05) | 4.69e-05 (4.42e-05, 4.82e-05) | 10.10e-05 (9.52e-05, 10.60e-05) | 3.79e-05 (3.60e-05, 3.92e-05) | 2.74e-05 (2.62e-05, 2.85e-05) |
| Adenoma growth rate (α – β) | 0.1438 (0.1415, 0.1463) | 0.1862 (0.1821, 0.1898) | 0.1985 (0.1941, 0.2032) | 0.1374 (0.1351, 0.1393) | 0.1769 (0.1729, 0.1816) | 0.1774 (0.1714, 0.1823) |
| Mean sojourn time* (Ts) | 63.7 (63.1, 64.3) | 54.2 (53.8, 54.6) | 50.1 (49.7, 50.4) | 65.0 (64.5, 65.5) | 50.6 (50.1, 51.0) | 48.3 (47.9, 48.9) |
| Adenoma conversion rate μ2/P∞ | 1.52e-05 (1.41e-05, 1.63e-05) | 0.77e-05 (0.68e-05, 0.88e-05) | 0.95e-05 (0.82e-05, 1.11e-05) | 1.82e-05 (1.71e-05, 1.96e-05) | 2.28e-05 (1.97e-05, 2.62e-05) | 3.34e-05 (2.90e-05, 3.99e-05) |
| UK (ONS) | ||||||
| Adenoma initiation rate (μ0Xμ1P∞) | 7.34e-05 (6.83e-05, 7.62e-05) | 5.38e-05 (5.16e-05, 5.52e-05) | 5.44e-05 (5.26e-05, 5.54e-05) | 6.53e-05 (6.13e-05, 6.65e-05) | 2.74e-05 (2.63e-05, 2.78e-05) | 2.98e-05 (2.85e-05, 3.02e-05) |
| Adenoma growth rate (α – β) | 0.1218 (0.1200, 0.1235) | 0.1502 (0.1479, 0.1527) | 0.1714 (0.1688, 0.1738) | 0.1200 (0.1186, 0.1219) | 0.1536 (0.1509, 0.1568) | 0.1477 (0.1454, 0.1507) |
| Mean sojourn time* (Ts) | 66.6 (65.9, 67.3) | 59.3 (58.8, 59.7) | 53.7 (53.4, 54.0) | 66.0 (65.4, 66.5) | 53.3 (52.9, 53.7) | 54.0 (53.5, 54.3) |
| Adenoma conversion rate μ2/P∞ | 3.66e-05 (3.49e-05, 3.83e-05) | 2.03e-05 (1.89e-05, 2.18e-05) | 1.73e-05 (1.61e-05, 1.88e-05) | 4.34e-05 (4.13e-05, 4.56e-05) | 4.26e-05 (3.85e-05, 4.63e-05) | 5.09e-05 (4.65e-05, 5.45e-05) |
*
Mean sojourn time: time in years between the appearance of the first cell in an adenoma to the clinical detection of a carcinoma.
Unless otherwise stated, values in parenthesis are 95% confidence intervals.