Table 1.

General assumptions of the Markov model of HCC prevention

Assumption	How they were addressed and rationale
Recruitment of B Positive participants	Target population age ≥ 35, HBsAg + ve for ≥ 6 months, born in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam
Contact testing and immunisation	Not factored into the model
Seroprevalence data in target populations	Data provided by Nguyen et al [19]
	• 10.7% for people born in China
	• 10.5% for people born in Vietnam
	• 7.7% for people born in Hong Kong
Initial testing to confirm CHB	Not factored in GP consultation calculations
Program participation rates	Base case assumption is 25% of eligible people enrolled
Follow up requirements	• Routine surveillance arm: 2 GP appointments/year
	• Enhanced HCC surveillance arm: 2 GP appointments/year
	• Interferon treatment: 6 specialist appointments/year
	• Entecavir treatment (includes those with liver failure): 4 specialist appointments/year
	• Patients with HCC: assumed monthly follow up
Viral load distribution by age	Based upon REVEAL study, [22] as participant profile largely matches that of B Positive participants
ALT cut-off levels	ALT≥ 1.5 × ULN triggers further evaluation in the absence of clinical data; ULN differentiated by participant age
Progression rates through disease stages	Constant over time
Patients with high VL and abnormal liver function	30% receive first line interferon for 12 months
	• 30% seroconvert and receive no further treatment
	• 70% commence entecavir the following year
	70% receive entecavir as first-line treatment
	• 20% seroconvert in the first year of entecavir treatment and receive no further treatment
	• 80% continue lifelong entecavir
Patients with liver failure	All receive entecavir

VL: viral load

ALT: alanine aminotransferase

HBsAg: hepatitis B surface antigen