Table 3.
Sensitivity and Specificity of Diarrheal Remedy Sales Model-Generated and Randomly Selected Signals
| All Outbreaks | Outbreaks with ≥ 50 Cases | Outbreaks with ≥ 100 Cases | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sensitivity | Specificity | Sensitivity | Specificity | Sensitivity | Specificity | |
| Over-the-counter drug IMA(1) Signal (6/11/06, 1/29/06, 10/15/06, 6/10/07)* |
4% (4/94) | 100% (11/11) | 4% (1/26) | 97% (76/79) | 14% (1/7) | 97% (95/98) |
| Random Signals 1 (1/29/06, 6/11/06, 9/9/07, 2/18/07)* |
4% (4/94) | 100% (11/11) | 8% (2/26) | 97% (77/79) | 14% (1/7) | 97% (95/98) |
| Random Signals 2 (2/12/06, 7/9/06, 12/3/06, 9/23/07)* |
3% (3/94) | 91% (10/11) | 4% (1/26) | 97% (76/79) | 0% (0/7) | 96% (94/98) |
| Random Signals 3 (5/21/06, 1/3/07, 9/16/07, 12/9/07)* |
3% (3/94) | 100%(11/11) | 4% (1/26) | 97% (77/79) | 0% (0/7) | 97% (95/98) |
* First day of week for each model generated and randomly generated signal.