Table 1.
Dr. Fisbee’s Predictions, Followed by the Present Author’s Kernel Density Estimated Predictions and Recommended Cutting Scores.
| Scale | Score | Prediction | KDE Prediction (5 year) | XHitmax BR = .18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Static-99 | 8 | .39 (5 year) | .51 | out of rangea |
| .45 (10 year) | ||||
| .52 (15 year) | ||||
| SORAG | 38 | 1.00 (violent; 7-year) | .30 | out of rangea |
| SVR-20 | 14 | “Medium to High” | .17 | 31 |
| RRASOR | 4 | .33 (5 year) | .18 | out of rangea |
| VRAG | 28 | 1.00 (violent; 7-year) | .26 | 32 |
| PCL-R | 29.5 | .81 (general) | .47 | 32 |
| .37 (violent) | ||||
| MnSOST-R | 18 | .88 (.35 base rate) | .26 | out of rangea |
| .78 (.21 base rate) | ||||
| .70 (.15 base rate) | ||||
| HCR-20 | 32 | .92 | N/A | N/A |
Indicates a hitmax cutting score that was beyond the test’s score range. (Kernel density estimates extrapolate beyond observed data according to kernel properties, the normal kernel ranges from −∞ to ∞, just like the normal distribution.)