Table 3. Validation analysis of spatial predictions from a Bayesian mixed-effects spatial logistic regression model for trachoma (follicular, TF, or inflammation, TI) in children aged 1–9 years, Southern Sudan.

Group*	Mean error	Mean absolute error	Area under the ROC curve (95% CI)
			True individual status	True prevalence >0%	True prevalence ≥10%	True prevalence ≥40%	True prevalence ≥70%
1	−0.043	0.139	0.84 (0.83–0.86)	0.95 (0.88–1.00)	0.97 (0.93–1.00)	0.94 (0.87–1.00)	0.93 (0.84–1.00)
2	−0.105	0.192	0.88 (0.85–0.90)	0.94 (0.84–1.00)	0.97 (0.91–1.00)	1.00 (1.00–1.00)	0.86 (0.67–1.00)
3	0.050	0.152	0.78 (0.76–0.81)	0.99 (0.95–1.00)	0.86 (0.65–1.00)	0.91 (0.76–1.00)	0.77 (0.59–0.96)
4	0.045	0.218	0.72 (0.69–0.75)	1.00 (1.00–1.00)	1.00 (1.00–1.00)	0.85 (0.64–1.00)	0.63 (0.40–0.85)
All	−0.012	0.170	0.80 (0.79–0.81)	0.96 (0.93–0.99)	0.96 (0.93–1.00)	0.92 (0.87–0.98)	0.80 (0.72–0.88)

*”Group” refers to four random subsets of locations from the original dataset and “All” refers to the four subsets pooled.