Table 3.
Model comparison | log10 Bayes factor | Evidence against Ho |
---|---|---|
Const Strict (H0) vs. relaxed (H1) clock | 27.732 | Very strong |
Expo Strict (H0) vs. relaxed (H1) clock | 19.496 | Very strong |
BSP Strict (H0) vs. relaxed (H1) clock | 17.736 | Very strong |
Const (H0) vs. Expo (H1) relaxed clock | 0.86 | Positive |
Const (H0) vs. BSP (H1) relaxed clock | 3.694 | Very strong |
BSP (H0) vs. Expo (H1) relaxed clock | 4.554 | Very strong |
BF, Bayes factor is the difference (in log space) of the marginal likelihood of the null (H0) and alternative (H1) models. BFs were estimated by comparing the approximate marginal likelihoods of the different models given in Table 3. Const, constant population size; Expo, exponential population growth; BSP, Bayesian skyline plot; Strict, strict molecular clock; Relaxed, relaxed molecular clock.