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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2010 Aug 26.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Appl Stat. 2009 Sep 1;3(3):1163–1182. doi: 10.1214/09-aoas251

Table 1.

Results from the models for the three markers of HIV disease progression

γ γs γh (×100) ζ DIC LPML
VL
q = 5 current 1.34 (0.87, 1.89) −0.08 (−0.17,−0.01) 1644 −744
+slope 1.57 (1.06, 2.18) 5.23 (1.91, 8.62) −0.07 (−0.16, 0.01) 1607 −726
+history 0.72 (−0.02, 1.43) 5.56 (1.08, 11.45) −0.09 (−0.19,−0.02) 1632 −737
q = 6 current 1.45 (0.93, 2.03) −0.08 (−0.18,−0.01) 1635 −741
+slope 1.88 (1.32, 2.53) 2.79 (1.48, 4.31) −0.07 (−0.17, 0.01) 1590 −717
+history 0.95 (0.20, 1.73) 4.26 (−0.07, 9.89) −0.09 (−0.20,−0.01) 1633 −736
q = 7 current 1.58 (1.06, 2.21) −0.08 (−0.18,−0.01) 1649 −735
+slope 2.03 (1.49, 2.70) 1.49 (0.91, 2.25) −0.07 (−0.19, 0.02) 1647 −709
+history 1.20 (0.47, 1.99) 3.28 (−0.97, 8.38) −0.09 (−0.19,−0.01) 1653 −734
q = 8 current 1.64 (1.11, 2.28) −0.09 (−0.18,−0.01) 1646 −731
+slope 1.93 (1.34, 2.62) 0.88 (0.29, 1.6) −0.09 (−0.19, 0) 1616 −715
+history 1.22 (0.47, 2.04) 3.84 (−0.63, 9.59) −0.09 (−0.21,−0.01) 1655 −728
q = 9 current 1.62 (1.09, 2.27) −0.08 (−0.18,−0.01) 1662 −730
+slope 1.92 (1.31, 2.66) 0.98 (−0.32, 2.22) −0.08 (−0.19, 0.00) 1633 −714
+history 1.26 (0.54, 2.07) 3.27 (−1.07, 8.78) −0.10 (−0.20,−0.03) 1668 −725
CD4
q = 5 current −0.83 (−1.17,−0.54) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1767 −743
+slope −0.87 (−1.22,−0.56) −1.81 (−4.24, 0.37) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1764 −732
+history −0.6 (−1.03,−0.19) −2.05 (−4.75, 0.36) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1747 −731
q = 6 current −0.81 (−1.15,−0.51) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.04) 1738 −741
+slope −0.91 (−1.29,−0.58) −1.47 (−3.32, 0.80) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1728 −730
+history −0.57 (−1.02,−0.15) −1.76 (−4.14, 0.38) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1722 −726
q = 7 current −0.96 (−1.34,−0.62) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1674 −731
+slope −0.98 (−1.39,−0.63) −0.38 (−1.36, 0.82) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1672 −719
+history −0.77 (−1.29,−0.29) −1.2 (−3.74, 1.03) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1666 −723
q = 8 current −1.01 (−1.42,−0.64) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1690 −732
+slope −1.03 (−1.46,−0.66) −0.26 (−1.09, 0.79) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1686 −719
+history −0.83 (−1.4,−0.3) −1.14 (−3.77, 1.23) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1684 −719
q = 9 current −0.94 (−1.32,−0.59) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1678 −733
+slope −0.94 (−1.34,−0.59) 0.07 (−0.54, 0.74) −0.12 (−0.22,−0.05) 1678 −721
+history −0.74 (−1.25,−0.24) −1.95 (−4.65, 0.47) −0.13 (−0.23,−0.05) 1666 −723
TLC
q = 5 current −0.20 (−0.42, 0.01) −0.11 (−0.19,−0.04) 3653 −1387
+slope −0.31 (−0.57,−0.09) −1.77 (−3.28,−0.04) −0.11 (−0.20,−0.04) 3617 −1376
+history −0.22 (−0.52, 0.06) 0.12 (−1.17, 1.32) −0.10 (−0.19,−0.04) 3649 −1380
q = 6 current −0.45 (−0.72,−0.19) −0.11 (−0.21,−0.05) 3485 −1300
+slope −0.47 (−0.75,−0.23) −0.34 (−0.73, 0.04) −0.11 (−0.20,−0.04) 3474 −1288
+history −0.70 (−1.04,−0.38) 1.46 (0.16, 2.78) −0.11 (−0.19,−0.04) 3458 −1288
q = 7 current −0.39 (−0.64,−0.16) −0.11 (−0.21,−0.04) 3521 −1297
+slope −0.40 (−0.65,−0.16) −0.11 (−0.32, 0.11) −0.11 (−0.19,−0.04) 3516 −1287
+history −0.54 (−0.86,−0.24) 0.96 (−0.30, 2.21) −0.11 (−0.20,−0.04) 3504 −1287
q = 8 current −0.51 (−0.75,−0.28) −0.12 (−0.21,−0.04) 3465 −1261
+slope −0.35 (−0.62,−0.10) 0.02 (−0.07, 0.14) −0.10 (−0.19,−0.04) 3451 −1265
+history −0.66 (−0.97,−0.40) 1.24 (0.04, 2.48) −0.11 (−0.19,−0.04) 3451 −1248
q = 9 current −0.45 (−0.68,−0.22) −0.10 (−0.19,−0.04) 3367 −1200
+slope −0.44 (−0.68,−0.21) 0.01 (−0.04, 0.08) −0.10 (−0.19,−0.04) 3368 −1191
+history −0.54 (−0.80,−0.27) 0.77 (−0.41, 1.90) −0.11 (−0.19,−0.04) 3367 −1192