Table 4.

Utilities u^dec for correct or incorrect decisions for different true V E^*

(a) Baseline utilities
True V E	Harm	Useless	Plaus Eff	Eff 1 Ph 3	Eff 2 Ph 3
−.5	1	−2	−3	−4	−5
0	−3	1	−1	−2	−3
.3	−3	−2	1	−1	−2
.5	−4	−3	−1	1	1
.7	−5	−4	−2	0	1
(b) Alternative utilities udec “safety first”
True V E	Harm	Useless	Plaus Eff	Eff 1 Ph 3	Eff 2 Ph 3
−.5	1	−4	−6	−8	−10
0	−1.5	1	−1	−2	−3
.3	−1.5	−1	1	−1	−2
.5	−2	−1.5	−.5	1	1
.7	−2.5	−2	−1	0	1
(c) Alternative utilities udec “efficacy first”
True V E	Harm	Useless	Plaus Eff	Eff 1 Ph 3	Eff 2 Ph 3
−.5	1	−1	−1.5	−2	−2.5
0	−6	1	−1	−2	−3
.3	−6	−4	1	−1	−2
.5	−8	−6	−2	1	1
.7	−10	−8	−4	0	1

^*Bolded entries are correct decisions