TABLE 4.
Discrete-Time Event History Analysis Using Multinomial Logit Model to Predict the Relative Likelihood of Taking a First Undocumented Trip to the U.S.
| Variable | Mode of Entry |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Tourist Visa |
Without Inspection |
|||
| B | SE | B | SE | |
| Demographic background | ||||
| Age | 0.023 | 0.036 | −0.002 | 0.026 |
| Age squared | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.001 |
| Married | 0.050 | 0.171 | 0.175* | 0.098 |
| Number children 0–1 | −0.045 | 0.141 | −0.049 | 0.074 |
| Number children 2–5 | −0.242** | 0.104 | −0.058 | 0.053 |
| Socioeconomic background | ||||
| Years of schooling | 0.067*** | 0.014 | −0.046*** | 0.009 |
| Occupation | ||||
| Not working | — | — | — | — |
| Unskilled | −0.127 | 0.202 | 0.513*** | 0.136 |
| Skilled | 0.022 | 0.199 | 0.178 | 0.145 |
| Owns real estate | −0.228 | 0.142 | −0.073 | 0.085 |
| Owns business | 0.153 | 0.147 | −0.202* | 0.113 |
| Social capital | ||||
| Parent ever U.S. migrant | 0.667*** | 0.221 | 0.667*** | 0.104 |
| Sibling ever U.S. migrant | 0.865*** | 0.135 | 0.823*** | 0.075 |
| Child ever U.S. migrant | 0.662** | 0.318 | 0.849** | 0.267 |
| Migratory prevalence | 0.200*** | 0.025 | 0.118*** | 0.011 |
| Prevalence squared | −0.005*** | 0.001 | −0.002*** | 0.001 |
| Contextual factors | ||||
| Log of community population | 0.118*** | 0.039 | −0.143*** | 0.023 |
| Linewatch hours | −0.002 | 0.002 | −0.003 | 0.002 |
| Deportations | −0.002 | 0.016 | 0.038*** | 0.010 |
| Relative access to documents | −0.315 | 0.341 | −0.125 | 0.145 |
| Relative GDP per capita | −0.006 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 0.013 |
| Country | ||||
| Mexico | — | — | — | — |
| Dominican Republic | −0.029 | 0.300 | −1.685*** | 0.274 |
| Nicaragua | 0.707* | 0.426 | −1.511*** | 0.383 |
| Costa Rica | 1.555*** | 0.174 | −0.951*** | 0.164 |
| Intercept | −9.644*** | 0.694 | −3.351*** | 0.439 |
| Person-years | 165,251 | |||
| Log likelihood | −7,548.1*** | |||
*
p < .10.
**
p < .05.
***
p < .01.