TABLE 5.
Discrete-Time Event History Analysis Using Multinomial Logit Model to Predict the Relative Likelihood of Taking a First Undocumented Trip to the U.S. from Mexico and Other Latin American Countries
| Variable | Mexico |
Other Latin American Countries |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Tourist Visa |
Without Inspection |
With Tourist Visa |
Without Inspection |
|||||
| B | SE | B | SE | B | SE | B | SE | |
| Demographic background | ||||||||
| Age | 0.057 | 0.040 | −0.048* | 0.029 | 0.013 | 0.028 | 0.120 | 0.092 |
| Age squared | −0.001** | 0.0005 | −0.001* | 0.0006 | 0.000 | 0.001 | −0.003** | 0.001 |
| Married | −0.105 | 0.234 | 0.093 | 0.111 | 0.164 | 0.209 | 0.774** | 0.317 |
| Number children 0–1 | −0.352* | 0.207 | −0.018 | 0.064 | 0.189 | 0.165 | −0.365* | 0.210 |
| Number children 2–5 | −0.284** | 0.134 | −0.046 | 0.041 | −0.188 | 0.145 | −0.106 | 0.129 |
| Socioeconomic background | ||||||||
| Years of schooling | 0.094*** | 0.030 | −0.056*** | 0.011 | 0.047* | 0.027 | 0.044 | 0.034 |
| Occupation | ||||||||
| Not working | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Unskilled | 0.204 | 0.492 | 0.529*** | 0.121 | −0.447*** | 0.165 | 0.374 | 0.391 |
| Skilled | 0.312 | 0.351 | 0.302** | 0.143 | −0.280 | 0.187 | −0.267 | 0.320 |
| Owns real estate | −0.270 | 0.270 | −0.118 | 0.103 | −0.141 | 0.156 | −0.016 | 0.264 |
| Owns business | −0.188 | 0.277 | −0.255 | 0.156 | 0.334* | 0.195 | −0.249 | 0.251 |
| Social capital | ||||||||
| Parent ever U.S. migrant | 0.331 | 0.393 | 0.586*** | 0.131 | 1.428*** | 0.257 | 1.155*** | 0.336 |
| Sibling ever U.S. migrant | 1.006*** | 0.196 | 0.750*** | 0.090 | 0.697*** | 0.247 | 1.524*** | 0.305 |
| Child ever U.S. migrant | 1.209** | 0.557 | 0.841*** | 0.295 | 0.546 | 0.335 | — | — |
| Migratory prevalence | 0.098** | 0.047 | 0.118*** | 0.020 | 0.222*** | 0.080 | 0.350*** | 0.099 |
| Prevalence squared | −0.002*** | 0.001 | −0.002*** | 0.001 | −0.007*** | 0.003 | −0.010*** | 0.004 |
| Contextual factors | ||||||||
| Log of community pop. | 0.010 | 0.117 | −0.114* | 0.066 | −0.055 | 0.107 | −0.068 | 0.167 |
| Linewatch hours | −0.001 | 0.006 | −0.004* | 0.003 | −0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Deportations | 0.026 | 0.036 | 0.056*** | 0.013 | −0.014 | 0.021 | −0.092** | 0.040 |
| Relative access to docs | −0.477 | 0.484 | 0.043 | 0.181 | 0.224 | 1.245 | −1.378 | 2.215 |
| Relative GDP per capita | 0.264 | 0.188 | −0.053 | 0.089 | −0.006 | 0.018 | −0.007 | 0.022 |
| Country | ||||||||
| Dominican Republic | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicaragua | — | — | — | — | 0.721 | 0.668 | 0.192 | 0.675 |
| Costa Rica | — | — | — | — | 1.446** | 0.659 | 0.396 | 0.867 |
| Intercept | −10.106*** | 1.816 | −4.537*** | 1.022 | −7.442*** | 1.524 | −8.458*** | 2.420 |
| Person-years | 94,952 | 70,299 | ||||||
| Log likelihood | −4,650.3*** | −1,112.4*** | ||||||
*
p < .10.
**
p < .05.
***
p < .01.