TABLE 6.

Discrete-Time Event History Analysis Predicting the Relative Likelihood of Returning from a First and Later Undocumented Trip to the U.S.

Independent Variable	First Trips		Later Trips
	B	SE	B	SE
Demographic background
Age	0.070**	0.028	−0.096*	0.056
Age squared	0.001**	0.0005	0.001*	0.0006
Married	0.185	0.138	−0.155	0.190
Number children 0–1	0.274***	0.084	0.213*	0.126
Number children 2–5	−0.014	0.051	0.055	0.091
Socioeconomic background
Years of schooling	−0.003	0.013	0.017	0.017
Occupation
Not working	—	—	—	—
Unskilled	−0.550***	0.190	−0.107	0.363
Skilled	−0.622***	0.194	−0.585	0.364
Owns real estate	0.218*	0.116	0.150	0.179
Owns business	−0.093	0.227	0.039	0.273
Social capital
Parent ever U.S. migrant	−0.087	0.112	−0.114	0.208
Sibling ever U.S. migrant	−0.139*	0.079	−0.058	0.113
Child ever U.S. migrant	−0.808***	0.200	−0.513***	0.160
Migratory prevalence	−0.011	0.017	0.002	0.029
Prevalence squared	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.001
Migration-specific capital
Entered on tourist visa	0.008	0.207	0.280	0.205
Duration in months	−0.036***	0.003	−0.033***	0.004
Duration squared	0.0001***	0.00002	0.0001***	0.00002
Contextual factors
Log of community population	−0.131**	0.065	−0.074	0.065
Linewatch hours	0.000	0.003	−0.001	0.003
Deportations	0.014	0.015	0.032	0.022
Relative access to documents	0.245	0.150	0.423	0.277
Relative GDP per capita	0.000	0.021	0.053	0.055
Country
Mexico	—	—	—	—
Dominican Republic	−1.161**	0.432	−2.157***	0.763
Nicaragua	−1.254*	0.663	−3.220	2.168
Costa Rica	−0.220	0.210	−0.324	0.386
Intercept	0.957	0.810	2.323*	1.400
Person-years	4,246		1,384
Log likelihood	−2,015.0***		−764.0***

^*p < .10.

^**p < .05.

^***p < .01.