Table 4.
Pre- and post-operative prediction of biochemical recurrence at 2–10 years in men treated with radical prostatectomy
| Reference | Year | Prediction form | Biochemical recurrence, years | No of Patients | Variables | Discrimination | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-operative | |||||||
| Snow et al. [17] | 1994 | Neural network | Not available | 240 | Age, PSA, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason grade, potency | 90% | Not performed |
| Kattan et al. [12] | 1998 | Probability nomogram development | 5 | 983 | Biopsy primary and secondary Gleason grade, clinical stage, PSA | Internal: 74% External: 65–83% |
Internal and external [30, 72, 73, 159] |
| D’Amico et al. [15] | 1999 | Probability table | 2 | 892 | Biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, PSA | Not available | Internal |
| Graefen et al. [160] | 1999 | Probability graph | 3.5 | 315 | Biopsy Gleason sum, number of positive cores, PSA | Not available | Not performed |
| D’Amico et al. [16] | 2000 | Probability graph | 2 | 977 | Biopsy Gleason sum, endorectal coil magnetic resonance imaging T-stage, PSA, percent positive biopsy cores | Not available | Internal |
| Tewari et al. [161] | 2001 | Neural network | 3.5 | 1400 | Age, race, PSA, clinical staging, biopsy Gleason sum | 83% | Not performed |
| D’Amico et al. [13, 14] | 1998, 2002 | Probability graph | 4 | 823 | Biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, PSA, percent positive biopsy cores | 80% | Internal and external [72, 162] |
| Cooperberg et al. [163] | 2005 | Probability graph | 3 and 5 | 1439 | Age, PSA, biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, percent positive biopsy | Internal: 66% External: 68–81% |
Internal and external [164, 165] |
| Stephenson et al. [37] | 2006 | Probability nomogram development | 10 | 1978 and 1545 | PSA, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason sum, year of surgery, number of positive and negative cores | 76–79% | Internal and external |
| Post-operative | |||||||
| Bauer et al. [166] | 1998 | Probability formula | 5 | 378 | Race, PSA, Gleason sum, organ confined status | Not available | External [167] |
| D’Amico et al. [13] | 1998 | Probability graph | 2 | 862 | Pathologic stage, PSA, Gleason sum, surgical margin status | Not available | Not performed |
| Graefen et al. [160] | 1999 | Probability graph | 3.5 | 318 | Pathologic stage, volume Gleason grade 4/5 | Not available | Not performed |
| Potter et al. [168] | 1999 | Neural network | 5 | 214 | Gleason sum, extraprostatic extension, surgical margin status, age, DNA ploidy, and quantitative nuclear grade | 94% | Internal |
| Kattan et al. [11] | 1999 | Probability nomogram development | 5 | 996 | PSA, Gleason sum, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion, lymph node invasion, surgical margin status | Internal: 89% External: 77–83% |
Internal and external [74, 78, 169] |
| Stamey et al. [170] | 2000 | Probability formula | Unknown | 326 | PSA, percent Gleason grade 4/5, volume largest cancer, vascular invasion, prostate weight, percent intraductal cancer, lymph node invasion | Not available | Not performed |
| McAleer et al. [171] | 2005 | Probability graph | 7 | 2417 | Gleason grade, stage, margin status, dichotomized PSA (cut point 10 ng/mL). | Not available | Internal |
| Stephenson et al. [36] | 2005 | Probability nomogram development | 10 | 1881, 1782, and 1357 | PSA, Gleason sum, extracapsular extension, seminal vesicle invasion, lymph node invasion, surgical margin status | 78–86% | Internal and external |
| Suardi et al. [36] | 2008 | Probability nomogram development | 5, 10, 15, and 20 | 601 (develop ment), 2963 and 3178 (external) | Gleason sum, pathologic stage, surgical margin status, type of surgery, adjuvant radiotherapy | Internal: 77–81% External: 77–86% |
Internal and external |