Table 6.
Prediction of metastasis and survival
| Reference | Year | Prediction form | Patient population | Outcome (years) | No of Patients | Variables | Discrimination | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partin et al. [177] | 1994 | Probability graph | Radical prostatectomy | Local versus distant recurrence | 1058 | PSA velocity, Gleason sum, pathologic stage | Not available | Not performed |
| Pound et al. [75] | 1999 | Probability table | Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy | Metastasis (7 years after biochemical recurrence) | 315 | PSA doubling time, Gleason sum, time to biochemical recurrence | 56% | Not performed |
| D’Amico et al. [178] | 2003 | Probability graph | Radical prostatectomy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (8) | 4946 | Biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, PSA | Not available | Internal |
| Dotan et al. [86] | 2005 | Probability nomogram development | Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy | Positive bone scan | 239 | Pre-treatment PSA, surgical margin status, seminal vesicle invasion, Gleason sum, trigger PSA, extracapsular extension, PSA slope, PSA velocity | 93% | Internal |
| Freedland et al. [76] | 2005 | Probability table | Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy | Cancer-specific survival (10 years after biochemical recurrence) | 379 | PSA doubling time, Gleason sum, time from surgery to biochemical recurrence | 59% | Not performed |
| D’Amico et al. [179, 180] | 2002, 2003 | Probability graph | External beam radiotherapy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (10) | 381 | Biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, PSA, percent positive biopsy | Not available | Internal |
| 94 | Time to PSA failure, post-treatment PSA doubling time, timing of salvage hormonal therapy. | |||||||
| D’Amico et al. [178] | 2003 | Probability graph | External beam radiotherapy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (8) | 2370 | Biopsy Gleason sum, clinical stage, PSA | Not available | Internal |
| Kattan et al. [85] | 2003 | Probability nomogram development | External beam radiotherapy | Metastasis (5) | 1677 and 1626 | PSA, clinical stage, biopsy Gleason sum | 81% | Internal and external |
| Slovin et al. [87] | 2005 | Probability nomogram development | External beam radiotherapy | Metastasis (1–2) | 148 | Baseline PSA, PSA doubling time, Pathologic T stage, Gleason sum | 69% | Not performed |
| Zhou et al. [181] | 2005 | Probability graph | External beam radiotherapy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (5) | 661 | PSA doubling time, biopsy Gleason sum | Not available | Internal |
| Stephenson et al. [182] | 2007 | Probability nomogram development | Salvage radiotherapy for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy | Biochemical recurrence after radiotherapy (7 years after biochemical recurrence) | 1540 | Prostatectomy PSA, Gleason sum, seminal vesicle invasion, extracapsular extension, surgical margin status, lymph node metastasis, persistently elevated PSA after radical prostatectomy, pre-radiotherapy PSA, PSA doubling time, neoadjuvant androgen-deprivation therapy, radiation dose | 69% | Internal |
| Zhou et al. [181] | 2005 | Probability graph | Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (5) | 498 | PSA doubling time | Not available | Internal |
| Slovin et al. [87] | 2005 | Probability nomogram development | Biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy | Metastasis (1–2) | 148 | Baseline PSA, PSA doubling time, Pathologic T stage, Gleason sum | 69% | Not performed |
| Svatek et al. [183] | 2006 | Probability nomogram development | Androgen-independent prostate cancer | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (1–5) | 129 | PSA at initiation of androgen-deprivation therapy, PSA doubling time, nadir {SA on androgen-deprivation therapy, time from androgen-deprivation therapy to androgen-independent prostate cancer | 81% | Internal |
| Smaletz et al. [90] | 2002 | Probability nomogram development | Men with progressive metastatic prostate cancer after castration | Overall survival (1–2) | 409 and 433 | Age, Karnofsky performance index, hemoglobin, PSA, lactic dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase, albumin | 71% | Internal and external |
| Porter et al. [89] | 2007 | Probability nomogram development | Men on androgen-deprivation therapy after radical prostatectomy | Prostate cancer-specific mortality (2–5) | 66 | Pathologic T stage, Gleason sum, surgical margin status, age at androgen-deprivation therapy, recurrence type | 66% | Internal |
| Halabi et al. [91] | 2003 | Probability nomogram development | Metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer | Overall survival (1–2) | 1101 | Lactate dehydrogenase, PSA, alkaline phosphatase, Gleason sum, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, hemoglobin, presence of visceral disease | 68% | Internal and external |
| Armstromg et al. [88] | 2007 | Probability nomogram development | Hormone-refractory prostate cancer | Overall survival (1, 2, and 5) | 1006 | Liver metastases, number of metastatic sites, clinically significant pain, Karnofsky performance status, type of progression (measurable progression and bone scan progression), pretreatment PSA doubling time, PSA, tumor grade, alkaline phosphatase, and hemoglobin | 69% | Internal |