Table 2.
Selected driver assumptions to 2050 from case studies. CAWMA assumes GDP growth from the MA TechnoGarden scenario. Agrimonde 1 crop area growth includes non-food crops. Some figures are annualized to aid comparison; n.a. means figures were not derived for or by the modelling framework or were not published. Source: Parry et al. (2004); Carpenter et al. (2005); Alexandratos (2006); de Fraiture et al. (2007); Chaumet et al. (2009).
| scenario exercise | scenario | population in 2050 (in billions) | GDP growth to 2050 (per annum) % | aggregate food demand in 2050 (kcal per person per day) | cereal productivity growth to 2050 (per annum) % | crop area increase (per annum) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAO 2050 (base year 1999/01) | FAO 2050 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 3130 | 0.9 | n.a. |
| CAWMA (base year 2000) | rainfed—high yield | 8.9 | 2.2 | 2970 | 1.4 (rainfed) | 0.14 (rainfed) |
| 0.7 (irrigated) | 0 (irrigated) | |||||
| rainfed—low yield | 0.4 (rainfed) | 1.06 (rainfed) | ||||
| 0.6 (irrigated) | 0 (irrigated) | |||||
| irrigation—area expansion | 0.4 (rainfed) | 0.56 (rainfed) | ||||
| 0.7 (irrigated) | 0.66 (irrigated) | |||||
| irrigation—yield improvement | 0.4 (rainfed) | 0.66 (rainfed) | ||||
| 1.5 (irrigated) | 0.18 (irrigated) | |||||
| trade | 1.2 (rainfed) | 0.44 (rainfed) | ||||
| 0.7 (irrigated) | 0 (irrigated) | |||||
| Parry et al. (2004) (base year 1990) | A1F1 | 8.7 | 3.6 | n.a. | see Parry et al. (2004) for potential changes in yields | n.a. |
| A2 | 11.3 | 2.3 | ||||
| B1 | 8.7 | 3.1 | ||||
| B2 | 9.3 | 2.8 | ||||
| MA (base year 1997) | Global Orchestration | 8.1 | n.a. | 3580 | 1.0 | 0.01 |
| TechnoGarden | 8.8 | n.a. | 3270 | ∼0.9 | 0.11 | |
| Adapting Mosaic | 9.5 | n.a. | 2970 | ∼0.6 | 0.23 | |
| Order from Strength | 9.6 | n.a. | 3010 | 0.5 | 0.34 | |
| CAWMA (base year 2000) | CAWMA scenario | n.a. | n.a. | 2970 | 1.1 (rainfed) | 0.14 (rainfed) |
| 1.1 (irrigated) | 0.32 (irrigated) | |||||
| Agrimonde (base year 2000) | Agrimonde 1 | 9.1 | n.a. | 3000 | n.a. | 0.78 |