Figure 1. Illustration of potential learning patterns and overview of experiment.

A) Possible depiction of the subject's estimated prior while they learn both mean and the variance at the same rate (top), or when the learning rate for the variance is slower (bottom), as would be expected from statistical considerations. B) A depiction of the experimental set-up. Coins are displayed on screen and the subjects place a horizontal “net” with a paddle wheel. C) A distribution over coin locations defines the prior, the observed cue coin defines a likelihood for the target coin, and Baye's rule prescribes the optimal posterior distribution of the estimated location of the target coin.