Table 2.

Transition probabilities used in the first 36 months of the model

Probability	Exemestane	Tamoxifen	Discontinued
From no recurrence to
Contra-lateral breast cancer	0.000536	0.001674	0.003193
Contra-lateral breast cancer (end of treatment)	0.001776	0.001776	na
Distant recurrence	0.012022	0.015596	0.016908
Distant recurrence (end of treatment)	0.011455	0.011455	na
Local recurrence	0.002765	0.004104	0.005542
Local recurrence (end of treatment)	0.002564	0.002564	na
Remaining in no recurrence	residual	residual	residual
Death from other causes	age-dependent German mortality data [11]
From disease remission to
Distant recurrence	0.051395	0.051395	na
Remaining in disease remission	residual	residual	na
Death from other causes	age-dependent German mortality data
From local recurrence to
Distant recurrence	0.051395	0.051395	na
Disease remission	residual	residual	na
Death from other causes	age-dependent German mortality data [11]
From distant recurrence to
Remaining in distant recurrence (survival)	0.179665	0.179665	na
Death from other causes	age-dependent German mortality data [11]
Death from breast cancer	residual	residual	residual
From contra-lateral breast cancer to
Distant recurrence	0.051395	0.051395	na
Remission to distant recurrence	residual	residual	na
Death from other causes	German age-specific mortality data [11]

na = Not applicable.