Table 5.
Results of a scenario analysis
| No. | Selected alternative scenarios | ICER (US$ per DALYa averted) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCV7 | PCV9 &10 | PCV13 | ||
| 1 | Immunity waning (no waning up to age 5, 25% decrease up to age 15, and 50% decrease up to age 30) Serotype replacement (by 25%) No herd immunity |
4,110 | 1,220 | 1,010 |
| 2 | No Immunity waning Serotype replacement (by 25%) No herd immunity |
3,960 | 1,170 | 970 |
| 3 | No Immunity waning Serotype replacement (increased incidence of non-primary endpoint pneumonia among vaccinated) No herd immunity |
900 | 650 | 550 |
| 4 | No Immunity waning No serotype replacement No herd immunity |
670 | 490 | 410 |
| 5 | No Immunity waning Serotype replacement (increased incidence of non-primary endpoint pneumonia among vaccinated) Herd immunity (assumed incidence decrease by 32%, 32%, 8%, and 18% for individuals aged 5-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-64 years, and 65 years and older) |
830 | 550 | 480 |
| 6 | No Immunity waning No serotype replacement Herd immunity (assumed incidence decrease by 32%, 32%, 8%, and 18% for individuals aged 5-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-64 years, and 65 years and older) |
630 | 430 | 370 |
DALY: disability-adjusted life year, ICER: incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.
a DALYs calculated without age-weighting (K = 0).