Table 2.

Strategy, IgE results, physician's diagnosis, prevalences, frequencies, probabilities and costs in the twelve possible diagnostics categories, a1 to a12.

Category (no. obs)		Strategy	Initial IgE test	Physcian's diagnosis	1Prevalence	Observed frequence	2Probability (p)	3Expected category cost (€)
								year 1	4year 2	year 1&2
a1	(9)	no-test	pos	uncertain	0,55	0,09	0,050	24	23	47
a2	(79)	no-test	pos	allergy	0,55	0,81	0,446	192	186	377
a3	(10)	no-test	pos	no-allergy	0,55	0,10	0,055	26	25	52
a4	(21)	no-test	neg	uncertain	0,45	0,22	0,099	48	46	94
a5	(54)	no-test	neg	allergy	0,45	0,56	0,252	105	102	206
a6	(21)	no-test	neg	no-allergy	0,45	0,22	0,099	13	13	26
a7	(1)	test	pos	uncertain	0,55	0,01	0,006	1	0	1
a8	(87)	test	pos	allergy	0,55	0,95	0,523	232	175	408
a9	(4)	test	pos	no-allergy	0,55	0,04	0,022	12	9	21
a10	(3)	test	neg	uncertain	0,45	0,05	0,023	12	12	24
a11	(10)	test	neg	allergy	0,45	0,17	0,077	6	5	10
a12	(45)	test	neg	no-allergy	0,45	0,78	0,351	51	46	97

¹frequence of positive results during screening, i.e. positive results in Phadiatop/Padiatop Infant

²calculated from the prevalence and observed frequence of being in category

³calculated as the sum of costs for medications, physician visits and allergy tests adjusted for observed episodes per patient on pathway as given in Table 1 and probability of being in category.

⁴costs in 2^nd year were discounted to correspond to 1^st year (rate:3%)