Table 4.

Mean estimates of transmissibility for the spring 1918 and autumn 1918 waves of the in the city of Toluca, Mexico assuming a serial interval of 3 or 6 days that is either exponentially distributed or fixed (delta distribution).

	3-day serial interval		6-day serial interval
	Exp dist.	Delta dist.	Exp. Dist.	Delta dist.
Estimates based on daily number of respiratory deaths
Spring wave	1.6 (1.5, 1.7)	1.8 (1.6, 1.9)	2.4 (2.2, 2.6)	3.1 (2.6, 3.6)
Autumn wave	2.1 (2.1, 2.1)	2.5 (2.4, 2.5)	3.5 (3.4, 3.6)	6.1 (5.9, 6.3)
Estimates based on daily number of excess respiratory deaths
Spring wave	1.7 (1.6, 1.7)	1.8 (1.7, 1.8)	2.4 (2.4, 2.5)	3.1 (3.0, 3.3)
Autumn wave	2.0 (2.0, 2.1)	2.3 (2.2, 2.3)	3.2 (3.2, 3.2)	5.1 (5.0, 5.2)