Figure 1.

(a) Gastric cancer natural history model. The model simulates the natural history of noncardia intestinal type gastric carcinogenesis through a series of health states. Each month, individuals can progress and regress among the health states. Individuals who develop cancer face disease-specific mortality rates, and all individuals face an age-dependent risk of dying from other causes. (b) Management options for individuals referred for treatment and surveillance. This figure depicts management options for individuals with a recent incidental diagnosis of gastric precancerous lesions (i.e. dysplasia, intestinal metaplasia, or atrophy), referred for treatment and surveillance. Individuals undergo endoscopy and biopsy to confirm and establish the scope of disease, with subsequent treatment and surveillance based on results. *Referred to as ‘post-treatment surveillance’.