Table 2.
Probability Estimates
| Variable | Weighted Mean | Range in Literature | Range in Sensitivity Analysis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability that a benign cyst grows | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0 – 0.1 | 50 |
| Probability of chronic complications after a pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.194 | 0.15-0.30 | 0.06-0.30 | 8,43,51 |
| Probability of perioperative complications after a pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.412 | 0.2-0.68 | 0.3-0.6 | 2,8,27,44,46,51-57 |
| Probability of death with a recurrent malignant IPMN following surgical resection | 0.842 | 0.80 – 1.0 | 0.3 – 0.9 | 19,27,58,59 |
| Probability of death with a recurrent pancreatic cancer following surgical resection | 0.9 | n/a | 0.3 -0.9 | 57,60-64* |
| Probability of developing symptoms with a benign cyst | 0.05 | n/a | 0.01-0.15 | 50* |
| Probability of developing symptoms with a benign IPMN | 0.05 | n/a | 0.01-0.15 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of developing symptoms with unrecognized malignant IPMN | 0.95 | n/a | 0.8-1.0 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of dying from adjuvant chemotherapy | 0.002 | 0 – 0.01 | 0 – 0.01 | 65-68 |
| Probability of dying from an EUS-FNA | 0.0001 | 0 – 0.002 | 0 – 0.01 | 67,69-72 |
| Probability of dying from a malignant IPMN without treatment | 0.6 | n/a | 0.4 – 0.8 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of dying from pancreatic cancer without treatment | 0.9 | n/a | 0.8 -1.0 | Expert opinion |
| Probability of dying from a pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.064 | 0 – 0.07 | 0.01 – 0.2 | 2-4,27,51,52,54,55,57,59,73-75 |
| Probability that a malignant IPMN found in the “do nothing” strategy is operable | 0.15 | n/a | 0 – 0.2 | Expert opinion |
| Probability that a malignant IPMN will return post pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.17 | 0.11 –0.99 | 0 – 0.6 | 33, 32, 84, 10, 12, 14, 15, 20, 24, 25, 29 |
| Probability that pancreatic cancer will return post pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.24 | n/a | 0 -0.6 | Expert opinion |
| Probability that a pancreatic cancer found in the “do nothing” strategy is operable | 0.1 | n/a | 0.01-0.3 | Expert opinion |
| Probability that a CT of a benign IPMN will demonstrate a true negative result | 0.99 | 0.72-0.92 | 0.5 -1.0 | 44,49,76* |
| Probability that a CT of a malignant IPMN will demonstrate a true positive result | 0.8 | 0.72 -0.92 | 0.5 -1.0 | 44,49,76 |
| Probability of a EUS-FNA of a benign IPMN demonstrating a true negative result | 0.99 | 0.75-1.0 | 0.5 -1.0 | 14,17,44,48,49,77* |
| Probability that a EUS-FNA of a malignant IPMN will demonstrate a true positive result | 0.86 | 0.75 – 1.0 | 0.5 – 1.0 | 14,17,44,48,49,77 |
| Quality of life (utility) of chemotherapy for malignant IPMN or pancreatic cancer | 0.62 | n/a | 0.4 – 0.9 | 38* |
| Quality of life (utility) of chronic complications from a pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.65 | 0.42 – 1.0 | 0.4 - 0.9 | 34-37 |
| Quality of life (utility)of perioperative complications from a pancreaticoduodenectomy | 0.50 | 0.42 – 1.0 | 0.4 - 0.9 | 34-37 |
| Quality of life (utility) of developing inoperable malignant IPMN or pancreatic cancer | 0.65 | n/a | 0.4 -0.9 | 38* |
| Quality of life (utility) of undergoing invasive surveillance | 0.98 | n/a | 0.5 – 1.0 | 78* |
| Quality of life (utility) of undergoing noninvasive surveillance | 0.98 | n/a | 0.5 – 1.0 | 78 |
| Quality of life (utility) of having been cured of cancer without any complications | 0.99 | 0.42 – 1.0 | 0.5 – 1.0 | 34-37 |
| Quality of life (utility) of developing recurrent malignant IPMN or pancreatic cancer | 0.68 | 0.42 – 1.0 | 0.4 – 0.8 | 38* |
| Quality of life (utility) of undergoing a pancreaticoduodenectomy with no complications | 0.98 | 0.42 – 1.0 | 0.5 – 1.0 | 34-37,79 |
*
Represents probabilities where a combination of available data and expert opinion were used to generate the specific probabilities