Table 4.

Sensitivity Analysis for a 65 year old with <1cm presumed Branch-Duct (BD) IPMN.

Variable	Base Case Estimate	65 year-old Threshold	75 year-old Threshold	85 year-old Threshold	Explanation
Annual probability of incident cancer in a <1cm BD-IMPN	0.1%	1%	2.0%	3%	If the annual rate of malignant transformation of a benign IPMN exceeds threshold then surgery is superior to surveillance
Baseline probability of prevalent cancer in a <1cm BD-IPMN	1%	4.5%	6.0%	7.5%	Once the prevalent rate of cancer exceeds threshold surgery is superior to surveillance
Annual death rate from untreated malignant IPMN	60%	65%	69%	73%	If the annual mortality rate for an untreated malignant IPMN exceeds threshold then surgery is superior to surveillance
Perioperative mortality with pancreaticoduodenectomy	6.4%	6%	3.8%	2.0%	When the mortality rate of a Pancreaticoduodenectomy is below threshold then a Pancreaticoduodenectomy is the superior strategy.
Peri-procedural mortality with EUS-FNA	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	If the mortality rate with EUS-FNA increases above threshold then noninvasive surveillance becomes the superior strategy over invasive surveillance.