Table 5.

Results of Monte Carlo Simulations. The table provides a visual heuristic with a similar interpretation as Table 3. For each simulation there are 1000 hypothetical patients subjected to the competing strategies. The results provide the absolute number of patients that would optimally benefit from each competing strategy, stratified by patient age, cyst size, and patient preference for unadjusted vs. quality adjusted survival. Shading demonstrates the degree of superiority over the competing strategies. For instance, for 1000 patients who are 85 years of age with a 3cm cyst, Whipple is the optimal strategy for 823 patients, invasive surveillance is optimal for 162 patients, and “do nothing” is optimal for only 15 patients.

		Life Years				Quality Adjusted Life Years
Age	Cyst Size (cm)	Do Nothing	Non-Invasive	Invasive	Whipple	Do Nothing	Non-Invasive	Invasive	Whipple
65	1	56	116	530	298	903	0	97	0
	2	0	0	110	890	767	52	179	2
	3	0	0	0	1000	0	0	0	1000
75	1	62	0	885	53	871	59	70	0
	2	0	0	548	552	819	0	181	0
	3	0	0	98	902	0	0	104	896
85	1	922	0	88	0	1000	0	0	0
	2	79	0	722	199	894	0	106	0
	3	15	0	162	823	12	460	528	0