Table 1.

Log PSA growth parameter estimates (upper panel) obtained via separate linear fits to PCPT cancer and noncancer cases. Preliminary preonset intercept and slope means were fine-tuned based on test-positive and cancer detection rates in the initial round of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial. Disease progression parameter estimates (lower panel) obtained via Nelder–Mead simplex calibration to incidence data from the SEER program across random seeds

Log PSA growth parameters
Parameter	Description	Posterior mean	Posterior 95% CI
μ0	Preonset intercept mean (preliminary)	− 1.2720	(− 0.8047)–(− 1.7393)
μ1	Preonset slope mean (preliminary)	0.0443	0.0431–0.0455
μ0	Preonset intercept mean (final)	− 1.6094	(− 1.1421)–(− 2.0767)
μ1	Preonset slope mean (final)	0.0200	0.0188–0.0212
μ2	Postonset slope increment mean	0.1094	0.0919–0.1269
σ02	Preonset intercept variance	0.0568	0.0480–0.0656
σ12	Preonset slope variance	0.0019	0.0018–0.0020
σ22	Postonset slope increment variance	0.0237	0.0202–0.0272
τ2	Within-individual variance	0.0829	0.0817–0.0841
Disease progression parameters
Parameter	Description	Simplex mean	Simplex 95% CI
γ0	Hazard of disease onset	0.0005	0.0004–0.0005
γm	Hazard of transition to metastatic disease	0.0004	0.0004–0.0005
γc	Hazard of clinical diagnosis	0.0015	0.0013–0.0017
θc	Multiplier for hazard of clinical diagnosis	19.1334	4.2105–24.0563