Fig. 2.

Monthly time series of (A) global freshwater discharge, (B) global-ocean evaporation, and (C) global-ocean precipitation after smoothing with a 12-month moving average filter. Emerging (short-term) trends in each of the variables, for the periods of 199412–200611 (broken red line), 199412–199906 (solid blue line), and 199907–200611 (solid blue line), and their respective p values (shown as a legend in each of the subplots) are estimated using a linear least-squares regression. Also shown in A are the time series of “BEST” (solid dark green line) and “Nino 3.4” (solid light green line) ENSO indices smoothed as described above.