Table 2.
Examples of Reforms and Outcome Measures Reported by Health Reform Microsimulation Models
| Examples of Reforms That Could Be Evaluated Using Microsimulation | Examples of Outcomes That Could be Assessed Using Microsimulation |
|---|---|
| Medicaid expansion | Number of newly insured (aggregate or by individual and family characteristics) |
| Tax credit | |
| Individual mandate | |
| Employer mandate | |
| Medicaid expansion | Cost of government program (aggregate or per newly insured) |
| Tax incentive | |
| Reinsurance | |
| Penalty of individual mandate | Revenue received by government program |
| Penalty of pay-or-play employer mandate | |
| Reduction in uncompensated care due to insurance expansion | Savings to government |
| Pay-or-play employer mandate | Additional expenditures for firms |
| Pay-or-play employer mandate | Firms offering ESI (aggregate and distribution) |
| Firm tax credit | |
| Individual income tax credit | Firms dropping ESI offer (aggregate and distribution) |
| Medicaid expansion | |
| Newly insured/uninsured in any insurance expansion | People switching from one insurance status to another: aggregate number and distribution (by age/income/health status …) |
| Switching from ESI to Medicaid (crowd-out) in Medicaid expansion | |
| Joining a purchasing pool | |
| Mandating guaranteed issue, community ratings | Change in nongroup premiums |
| Tax credit | |
| Pay-or-play employer mandate | Change in group premiums |
| Government funded reinsurance | |
| Any of the above | Change in consumer financial risk (median and distribution) |
| Any of the above | Change in national health expenditures (total/out of pocket) |
| Any of the above | Additional population life years |