Table 3.
—Asthma Exacerbations (Expert Panel Report 3 Definition) by Score Category
| Data Set | Low Risk (≤ 5) | Average Risk (6-8) | High Risk (≥ 9) |
| Exploratory set (n = 465), No. | 121 | 251 | 93 |
| Subjects with outcome, No. (%)a | 54 (44.6) | 183 (72.9) | 87 (93.6) |
| OR (95% CI)b | 0.2 (0.1-0.3)c | … | 8.3 (3.5-19.5)c |
| PV, %d | 55.4 | … | 93.6 |
| FPR, %e | 16.7 | … | 4.3 |
| Validation set (n = 150), No. | 44 | 76 | 30 |
| Subjects with outcome, No. (%)a | 19 (43.2) | 58 (76.3) | 27 (90.0) |
| OR (95% CI)b | 0.2 (0.1-0.4)c | … | 5.4 (1.5-19.2)f |
| PV, %d | 56.8 | … | 90 |
| FPR, %e | 18.3 | … | 6.5 |
| CAMP 1 y (n = 1,041), No.g | 371 | 530 | 140 |
| Subjects with outcome, No. (%)a | 92 (24.8) | 185 (34.9) | 67 (47.9) |
| HR (95% CI)b | 0.6 (0.5-0.7)f | … | 1.9 (1.4-2.4)c |
| PV, %d | 75.2 | … | 47.9 |
| FPR, %e | 26.7 | … | 10.5 |
| CAMP 2 y (n = 1,041), No.h | 371 | 530 | 140 |
| Subjects with outcome, No. (%)a | 145 (39.1) | 262 (49.4) | 95 (67.9) |
| HR (95% CI)b | 0.6 (0.5-0.8)f | … | 1.9 (1.5-2.4)c |
| PV, %d | 60.9 | … | 67.9 |
| FPR, %e | 28.9 | … | 8.3 |
FPR = false-positive rate; HR = hazard ratio; PV = predictive value. See Table 1 legend for expansion of other abbreviation.
a
Percentage of subjects in the same score category.
b
Adjusted for age, sex, and parental education in Costa Rica and for age, sex, race, and treatment group in CAMP.
c
P < .001.
d
PV for no exacerbation in the low-risk group and for exacerbation in the high-risk group.
e
FPR = 1-specificity.
f
P < .05.
g
From start of cohort through 1-y follow-up.
h
From start of cohort through 2-y follow-up.