Figure 1. Predicted increase in viral load per escape event as a function of the outgrowth rate of the escape variant.

Results from the first 1,000 runs from the mathematical model are plotted. The increase in viral load after an escape event is significantly positively correlated with the outgrowth rate (k) of the escape variant (Spearman's rank correlation: p<0.0001, rho = 0.59). The median predicted increase in viral load for observed values of the outgrowth rate (k, shaded area) is approximately 0.051 log (95% confidence interval: 0.050–0.052).