Table 1.

Distinguishing virologic and immunologic features of low-, medium-, and high-copy HSV-2 shedding episodes from a 365-d model simulation

	Low-copy episodes (n = 42)		Medium-copy episodes (n = 7)		High-copy episodes (n = 5)
Measurement	Median	Range	Median	Range	Median	Range
Peak viral load, log10	2.1	1.9–3.5	5.1	4.3–5.9	6.6	6.1–7.1
No. of virions shed per episode, log10	2.3	1.9–4.4	6.3	5.9–6.8	7.5	7.1–8.0
Peak infected cells	1	1–5	179	33–948	5,156	1,659–14,650
No. of infected cells per episode	2	1–115	8,364	3,199–31,773	154,963	54,116–420,837
Peak diameter, mm	0	0	0.7	0.6–1.2	3	1.9–5
CD8+ lymphocyte expansion needed for clearance (%)	0/42 (0)		7/7 (100)		5/5 (100)
CD8+ lymphocyte density at episode onset, per mm3	4,856	1,448–11,672	3077	2,130–4,016	1,540	1,327–1,894
Average infected cell lifespan at episode onset, min	30	12–99	47	36–68	94	76–109
Viruses produced per infected cell at episode onset	206	86–691	325	249–469	649	528–754
Reproductive number (R) at episode onset	0.9	0.4–2.9	1.4	1.1–2.0	2.7	2.2–3.1
Infected cells killed by CD8+ T cells, %	100	50–100	97.3	97.0–97.9	97.3	97.3–97.4

Low-, medium-, and high-copy episodes are respectively defined as having a peak HSV-2 DNA copy number <10⁴/mL, 10⁴–10⁶/mL, and >10⁶/mL. Population parameter values are averages for all variables in the model: infectivity: β = 10⁻⁸/d; viral infectivity duration: 1/c = 2 h; burst phase: p = 10,000 HSV DNA copies per infected cell per day; infected cell lifespan: 1/a = 20 h; rate of HSV DNA released from neurons: ϕ = 50 HSV DNA copies per day; rate of CD8⁺ lymphocyte expansion: θ = 1.5/d; rate of clearance of infected cells by CD8⁺ lymphocytes: f = 0.01 infected cells per CD8⁺ T cell per day; CD8⁺ lymphocyte lifespan: 1/δ = 20 d; and CD8⁺ lymphocyte antigen recognition: r = 200 infected cells needed before θ is half-maximal.