TABLE 2.
Results from 90-day vaccination scenarios with no prioritization of ACIP groups
| Attack rate by age group (years) |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total attack rate (%) |
≤ 4 (%) |
5–18 (%) |
19–24 (%) |
25–49 (%) |
50–64 (%) |
≥ 65 (%) |
|
| Increasing-viral-transmissibility | |||||||
| scenarios | |||||||
| No vaccination | 24.9 | 39.0 | 44.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| Vaccination initiated: | |||||||
| 8 weeks before peak | 3.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 weeks before peak | 9.2 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| At peak | 15.3 | 25.0 | 30.0 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Loss-of-cross-protection scenarios | |||||||
| No vaccination | 26.7 | 43.0 | 51.0 | 26.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| Vaccination initiated: | |||||||
| 8 weeks before peak | 7.5 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| 4 weeks before peak | 13.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| At peak | 20.7 | 34.0 | 41.0 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| Change-in-social-mixing scenarios | |||||||
| No vaccination | 26.7 | 22.0 | 24.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Vaccination initiated: | |||||||
| 8 weeks before peak | 2.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 4 weeks before peak | 6.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| At peak | 7.2 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 |
a
SEs for all attack rates were < 1%.