Figure 1.

Flowchart of the estimation process for the dynamic models of smoking. Mortality model: the input includes two key variables for each respondent, (a) smoking history and (b) mortality status (including the date of death). From the mortality model, the parameters of the expected tobacco exposure index and the hazard rate are estimated. Given these parameters, the expected tobacco exposure index is derived. Morbidity models (including two models, one for high risk smoking-related diseases (SRDs) and another for low risk SRDs): the two key input variables are (a) the expected tobacco exposure index and (b) the SRDs treatment status. Health status model: the input is the same as that for the morbidity models. The output is the expected health status. Healthcare expenditure models (including three models separately for individuals with high risk SRDs, individual with low risk SRDs and individuals without SRDs): the input is the same as that for the morbidity models and for health status model plus two additional variables, (a) expected health status and (b) smoking history.