Figure 2.

Network describing the temporal evolution of individual health states of animals within an infected dairy cattle herd. represents the real and non-observed health state of individual i belonging to herd h (i ∈ {1, … N(h)} with N(h) the total number of cows in the herd h, h ∈ {1, … H} and H the number of herds) at time t (t ∈ {0, … T)} with t₂₈ = T and t₀ = 0). E_t,h describes the quantity of bacteria in the environment of the herd h at time t. represents the observed health state associated with . J_h is the probability distribution of the initial real health states in the herd h and U is the matrix of the uncertainty parameters (Se and Sp of tests) linking real and observed health states. contains the parameters of transitions between real health states in herd h except those characterizing the S↔I− transitions. is a 3 × 4 matrix corresponding to the last three rows of matrix described in equation (3.1).