Table 1.
Projections from the Three-State Model of Numbers of People in Millions with No Diabetes, Undiagnosed Diabetes, and Diagnosed Diabetes for Selected Years
| Year | Relative Risk r1 | Relative Risk r2 | No Diabetes (Low, Middle) | Undiagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle) | Diagnosed Diabetes (Low, Middle) | Total US Adult Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (191.4, 191.2) | (12.0, 11.5) | (20.3, 21.0) | 223.7 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (192.1, 191.9) | (12.1, 11.6) | (19.5, 20.2) | ||
| 2015 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (196.1, 194.6) | (13.1, 12.2) | (26.6, 29.1) | 235.9 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (198.1, 196.6) | (13.3, 12.4) | (24.4, 26.8) | ||
| 2020 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (200.7, 196.9) | (13.9, 12.7) | (32.9, 37.9) | 247.5 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (204.0, 200.3) | (14.3, 13.0) | (29.2, 34.1) | ||
| 2025 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (205.4, 198.5) | (14.4, 13.0) | (38.7, 47.0) | 258.5 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (210.2, 203.6) | (14.9, 13.5) | (33.4, 41.4) | ||
| 2030 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (209.5, 199.3) | (14.7, 13.1) | (43.7, 55.5) | 267.9 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (216.0, 206.2) | (15.4, 13.7) | (36.5, 48.0) | ||
| 2035 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (213.9, 200.1) | (15.0, 13.2) | (48.1, 63.6) | 276.9 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (222.1, 208.9) | (15.8, 14.0) | (39.1, 54.1) | ||
| 2040 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (218.3, 201.0) | (15.2, 13.3) | (52.0, 71.2) | 285.5 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (228.2, 211.6) | (16.2, 14.2) | (41.1, 59.7) | ||
| 2045 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (223.6, 202.7) | (15.5, 13.4) | (55.6, 78.6) | 292.9 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (235.1, 215.0) | (16.6, 14.4) | (43.1, 65.4) | ||
| 2050 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (230.6, 206.0) | (16.0, 13.7) | (59.7, 86.6) | 306.3 |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (243.5, 219.7) | (17.2, 14.8) | (45.6, 71.8) |
Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08. Entries in the last column are the Census projections of the total US adult population.