Table 2.
Projections for Selected Years of Incident Cases in Thousands from the Adult Population with No Diabetes from the No-Intervention Model (Three-State Model) and the Preventive Intervention Model (Five-State Model)
| Year | Relative | Relative | No-Intervention | Intervention | Difference (Low, Middle) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Risk r1 | Risk r2 | Incident Cases (Low, Middle) | Incident Cases (Low, Middle) | ||
| 2010 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2018.4, 2145.7) | (1681.6, 1787.9) | (336.8, 357.8) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2021.1, 2148.4) | (1683.8, 1790.1) | (337.3, 358.3) | |
| 2015 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2095.4, 2468.1) | (1773.2, 2093.2) | (322.2, 374.9) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2106.8, 2481.9) | (1782.7, 2104.9) | (324.1, 377.0) | |
| 2020 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2143.3, 2721.9) | (1833.3, 2341.0) | (310.0, 380.9) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2164.9, 2752.2) | (1851.7, 2366.9) | (313.2, 385.3) | |
| 2025 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2176.1, 2933.5) | (1875.8, 2551.9) | (300.3, 381.6) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2208.9, 2984.9) | (1904.1, 2596.6) | (304.8, 388.3) | |
| 2030 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2230.0, 3098.4) | (1933.6, 2721.5) | (296.4, 376.9) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2276.0, 3175.1) | (1973.5, 2789.1) | (302.5, 386.0) | |
| 2035 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2300.8, 3225.0) | (2004.4, 2855.9) | (296.4, 369.1) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2361.4, 3329.7) | (2057.3, 2949.2) | (304.1, 380.5) | |
| 2040 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2334.3, 3323.2) | (2041.4, 2963.2) | (292.9, 360.0) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2408.8, 3456.9) | (2107.0, 3083.6) | (301.8, 373.3) | |
| 2045 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2341.5, 3401.4) | (2054.0, 3050.5) | (287.5, 350.9) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2428.3, 3562.9) | (2130.6, 3197.3) | (297.7, 365.6) | |
| 2050 | 1.77 | 2.11 | (2403.8, 3490.9) | (2113.8, 3146.1) | (290.0, 344.8) |
| 1.00 | 4.08 | (2502.6, 3677.2) | (2201.7, 3316.8) | (302.9, 360.4) |
Note: There are four scenarios included (1) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (2) low incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08, (3) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.77, r2 = 2.11, (4) middle incidence projections and r1 = 1.00, r2 = 4.08.