Table 5. The predictive effect of the risk score on incident diabetes in the prospective study.

Model 1			Model 2
Continuous, per 1 risk score
ORs		1.32 (1.07–1.63)	1.33 (1.08–1.68)
P1 for trend		0.009	0.007
Classed by quartiles of the risk score
	Q1 (0–3)	1	1
	Q2 (4)	1.67 (0.67–3.94)	1.60 (0.66–3.88)
	Q3 (5)	1.07 (0.40–2.87)	1.20 (0.44–3.27)
	Q4 (6–8)	2.98 (1.30–6.83)	3.05 (1.31–7.12)
P2 for trend		0.02	0.03

Values are odds ratio (95% confidence interval). P _{for trend} values, for the risk of incident type 2 diabetes, we defined subjects remaining non-diabetic as 0 and the incident type 2 diabetes as 1. Q1, quartile 1; Q2, quartile 2; Q3, quartile 3; Q4 quartile 4.

Model 1, unadjusted;

Model 2, adjusted for age, gender BMI, diabetes family history, current smoking and alcohol intake.