Figure 4.

The relationship between gametocytaemia and transmission for three different theoretical transmission blocking vaccines which have the same mean efficacy but differ in their variance. The two panels show the impact of the interventions which reduce the production of ookinetes by an average of 60% if malaria transmission is dependent on the presence (dashed line, panel A) or density (solid line, pane B) of salivary gland sporozoites. Predictions are shown for no intervention (black line) or for a TBV which generates a range of antibody responses in the vaccinated population corresponding to a ratio of the 97.5% percentile to the 2.5% percentile of 9 fold (low variance, light green), 68 fold (medium variance, dark green) or 6664 fold (high variance, purple) [31].