Table 10.

(7a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in second and third degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt₀ = Pt₁), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

	Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
	5	10	11	12	13	14	15
Frequency of Susceptibility (r)	Predicted Concordance in Second Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9 - 1.6%)
r = 0.25	12.1%	13.0%	12.9%	12.8%	12.8 - 13.3%	12.7-13.3%	12.6 - 13.3%
r = 0.33	9.2%	7.6%	6.8 - 9.1%	6.1 - 8.4%	7.8%	7.1 - 9.1%	6.5 - 8.5%
r = 0.5	5.6%	3.2 - 4.4%	3.5 - 4.7%	2.8 - 5.0%	3.1 - 4.1%	3.4 - 4.4%	2.7 - 3.7%
r = 1	3.7 - 4.5%	2.1 - 2.9%	1.8 - 2.5%	1.8 - 2.4%	1.5 - 2.1%	1.5 - 2.0%	1.3 - 1.8%
r = 2	2.5 - 3.9%	1.4 - 2.0%	1.4 - 1.8%	1.2 - 1.7%	1.0 - 1.4%	0.9 - 1.2%	0.8 - 1.2%
r = 4	2.4 - 3.5%	1.1 - 1.7%	1.0 - 1.5%	0.9 - 1.3%	0.8 - 1.1%	0.7 - 1.0%	0.6 - 0.9%
r = 8	2.1 - 3.2%	1.0 - 1.4%	0.9 - 1.3%	0.7 - 1.1%	0.6 - 0.9%	0.5 - 0.8%	0.5 - 0.7%
r = 16	1.9 - 3.0%	0.9 - 1.3%	0.8 - 1.1%	0.6 - 0.9%	0.5 - 0.8%	0.5 - 0.7%	0.4 - 0.6%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r)	Predicted Concordance in Third Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9%)
r = 0.25	11.8%	12.9%	12.8%	12.7%	12.5 - 13.3%	12.4 - 13.2%	12.3 - 13.2%
r = 0.33	8.3%	6.3%	5.5 - 7.9%	4.8 - 7.1%	6.4%	5.7 - 7.8%	5.0 - 7.1%
r = 0.5	4.4%	2.0 - 3.0%	2.3 - 3.3%	1.7 - 3.4%	1.9 - 2.7%	2.1 - 2.9%	1.6 - 2.2%
r = 1	2.7 - 3.3%	1.1 - 1.7%	0.9 - 1.4%	0.9 - 1.3%	0.7 - 1.1%	0.7 - 1.0%	0.5 - 0.8%
r = 2	1.7 - 2.8%	0.7 - 1.1%	0.6 - 0.9%	0.5 - 0.8%	0.4 - 0.7%	0.4 - 0.5%	0.3 - 0.5%
r = 4	1.6 - 2.5%	0.5 - 0.9%	0.5 - 0.7%	0.4 - 0.6%	0.3 - 0.5%	0.3 - 0.4%	0.2 - 0.3%
r = 8	1.4 - 2.4%	0.5 - 0.8%	0.4 - 0.6%	0.3 - 0.5%	0.3 - 0.4%	0.2 - 0.3%	0.2 - 0.3%
r = 16	1.3 - 2.2%	0.4 - 0.7%	0.3 - 0.5%	0.3 - 0.5%	0.2 - 0.4%	0.2 - 0.3%	0.1 - 0.2%

(Targets are in bold; optimal solution is underlined)