Table 11.
(7b) Predicted concordance rates of MS in second and third degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt0 = Pt1), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.
| Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 17 | 18 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | |
| Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Second Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9 - 1.6%) | ||||||
| r = 0.25 | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.2 - 13.4% | 13.2 - 13.4% | 13.3 - 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| r = 0.33 | 5.9 - 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8 - 8.6% | 4.6 - 7.6% | 5.0 - 7.7% | 4.3 - 7.8% | 4.6 - 10.5% |
| r = 0.5 | 3.0 - 3.9% | 2.4 - 3.3% | 2.7 - 3.5% | 1.1 - 2.3% | 0.9 - 1.4% | 0.5 - 1.1% | 0.4 - 3.0% |
| r = 1 | 1.1 - 1.5% | 1.1 - 1.5% | 0.9 - 1.3% | 0.3 - 0.6% | 0.1 - 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0 - 0.1% |
| r = 2 | 0.7 - 1.0% | 0.7 - 0.9% | 0.6 - 0.8% | 0.1 - 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 4 | 0.5 - 0.8% | 0.5 - 0.7% | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.0 - 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 8 | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.4 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 16 | 0.4 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.3 - 0.4% | 0.0 - 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Frequency of Susceptibility (r) | Predicted Concordance in Third Degree Relatives (Target = 0.9%) | ||||||
| r = 0.25 | 13.2% | 13.1% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.1 - 13.4% | 13.2 - 13.4% | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| r = 0.33 | 4.5 - 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2 - 7.1% | 2.9 - 5.6% | 3.1 - 5.4% | 2.2 - 5.2% | 2.4 - 8.0% |
| r = 0.5 | 1.7 - 2.4% | 1.3 - 1.9% | 1.4 - 2.0% | 0.4 - 1.0% | 0.2 - 0.4% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 1.0% |
| r = 1 | 0.4 - 0.7% | 0.4 - 0.6% | 0.3 - 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 2 | 0.3 - 0.4% | 0.2 - 0.3% | 0.2 - 0.3% | 0.0 - 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 4 | 0.2 - 0.3% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 8 | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| r = 16 | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1 - 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
(Targets are in bold)