Table 8.

(6a) Predicted concordance rates of MS in first degree relatives of MS probands assuming (Pt₀ = Pt₁), 20% Dominant genes and 80% Recessive genes.

	Number of Susceptibility Genes Required (n)
	5	10	11	12	13	14	15
Frequency of Susceptibility (r)	Predicted Concordance in Non-twin Siblings (Target = 2.9 - 3.8%)
r = 0.25	12.6%	13.2%	13.2%	13.1%	13.1 - 13.4%	13.1 - 13.4%	13.0 - 13.4%
r = 0.33	10.8%	10.1%	9.6 - 11.3%	9.1 - 10.9%	10.5%	10.1 - 11.5%	9.7 - 11.2%
r = 0.5	8.1%	6.5 - 7.9%	7.1 - 8.3%	6.3 - 8.7%	6.8 - 8.0%	7.3 - 8.4%	6.6 - 7.8%
r = 1	6.5 - 7.3%	5.4 - 6.6%	5.1 - 6.2%	5.2 - 6.3%	4.9 - 5.9%	5.0 - 6.0%	4.8 - 5.7%
r = 2	5.2 - 6.7%	4.4 - 5.4%	4.5 - 5.2%	4.3 - 5.2%	4.0 - 4.9%	4.0 - 4.6%	3.9 - 4.7%
r = 4	5.0 - 6.2%	3.9 - 4.8%	3.8 - 4.7%	3.7 - 4.5%	3.5 - 4.2%	3.4 - 4.1%	3.3 - 4.0%
r = 8	4.6 - 5.9%	3.5 - 4.4%	3.5 - 4.3%	3.3 - 4.0%	3.1 - 3.8%	2.9 - 3.6%	2.9 - 3.5%
r = 16	4.3 - 5.6%	3.3 - 4.1%	3.2 - 4.0%	3.0 - 3.7%	2.8 - 3.5%	2.6 - 3.3%	2.6 - 3.2%
Frequency of Susceptibility (r)	Predicted Concordance in Parents/Children (Target = 1.8 - 2.1%)
r = 0.25	12.6%	13.2%	13.2%	13.1%	13.1 - 13.4%	13.1 - 13.4%	13.0 - 13.4%
r = 0.33	10.7%	9.9%	9.4 - 11.2%	8.9 - 10.8%	10.4%	9.9 - 11.4%	9.5 - 11.0%
r = 0.5	7.7%	5.9 - 7.3%	6.5 - 7.8%	5.7 - 8.2%	6.2 - 7.4%	6.6 - 7.8%	6.0 - 7.1%
r = 1	5.6 - 6.4%	4.3 - 5.4%	3.9 - 5.0%	4.0 - 5.0%	3.6 - 4.5%	3.7 - 4.6%	3.4 - 4.3%
r = 2	3.7 - 5.3%	2.8 - 3.7%	2.9 - 3.6%	2.6 - 3.4%	2.4 - 3.1%	2.3 - 2.8%	2.2 - 2.8%
r = 4	3.3 - 4.5%	2.1 - 2.8%	2.0 - 2.7%	1.8 - 2.4%	1.6 - 2.1%	1.5 - 2.0%	1.4 - 1.9%
r = 8	2.7 - 3.9%	1.6 - 2.2%	1.5 - 2.1%	1.3 - 1.8%	1.1 - 1.6%	1.0 - 1.4%	1.0 - 1.3%
r = 16	2.3 - 3.5%	1.2 - 1.7%	1.2 - 1.7%	1.0 - 1.4%	0.8 - 1.2%	0.7 - 1.0%	0.7 - 0.9%

(Targets are in bold; optimal solution underlined)