Table 2.

ARIMA analysis comparing best model for the paper charting system and the automated system for endpoints of tacrolimus toxicity episodes and rejection episodes

End-Points	Model*	Term	Lag	Estimate	SE	T ratio	p Value
Tacrolimus toxicity episodes
Paper system	(0,0,0)	Intercept	0	3.1	0.25	12.8	<0.01
Automated system	(0,1,1)	Intercept	0	−0.19	0.04	−4.9	<0.01
		MA1	1	1	0.17	6	<0.01
Rejection episodes
Paper system	(0,0,0)	Intercept	0	2	0.3	7.4	<0.01
Automated system	(0,1,2)	Intercept	0	−0.1	0.02	−4.6	<0.01
		MA1	1	1.6	0.49	3.3	<0.01
		MA2	2	−0.6	0.45	−1.4	0.2

^*Best model as determined by Akaike's Information Criterion and Schwarz's Bayesian Criterion rankings.