Table 3. Summarized parameters used in the model and their statistical descriptions.
Summarized parameters | Statistics (90% CI) | Distributions used | Uncertainty/variability |
Total quantity of daily milk sales in urban Kampala | 148.9 t (109.7–200.0) | Bootstrap simulation | Variability |
Milk infection rate in Mbarara | 0.115 (0.039–0.206) | Bayesian inference with non informative prior (1,1) and Binomial likelihood distribution adjusted with sensitivity and specificity of IELISA | Uncertainty |
Milk infection rate in Nakasongola | 0.250 (0.050–0.508) | Bayesian inference with non informative prior (1,1) and Binomial likelihood distribution adjusted with sensitivity and specificity of IELISA | Uncertainty |
Milk infection rate in urban farms | 0.075 (0.010–0.166) | Simulated total quantity of infected milk/simulated total milk production, using bootstrap and Binomial distribution | Uncertainty + variability (milk quantity) |
Milk infection rate in peri-urban farms | 0.253 (0.086–0.426) | Sum of total quantities of infected milk produced by small and large scale farms/sum of total milk productions by small and large scale farms, using bootstrap and Binomial distribution | Uncertainty + variability (milk quantity) |
Boiling practice | Probabilities in each type of milk sellers were used | Beta distribution and point estimates | Uncertainty |
Annual average/rainy season rainfall ratio in Mbarara | 0.564 (0.457–0.694) | Bootstrap simulation of 7 years data (1999–2005) | Variability |
Annual average/rainy season rainfall ratio in Namulonge | 0.730 (0.596–0.880) | Bootstrap simulation of 7 years data (1999–2005) | Variability |
Human brucellosis incidence | 1009 (929–1082) | Beta distribution, Binomial distribution using adjusted prevalence with sensitivity and specificity of test, bootstrap | Uncertainty |
As the model is complex, all the individual parameters were presented in the Annex.