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. 2010 Feb;47(1):97–124. doi: 10.1353/dem.0.0087

Table 7.

Unadjusted and Adjusted Trends in TFR and Its Components (pooled data analysis)

Transition Measure Period Analysis
 Cohort Analysis
1988–1992a 1993–1997 1998–2002 1993a 1998 2003
B–M PPR (pB)
  Unadjusted 0.89 0.91 0.94** 0.95 0.92* 0.95
  Adjusted 0.88 0.90 0.93** 0.93 0.91* 0.94
Mean Am
  Unadjusted 23.4 23.4 22.7** 21.8 21.7 21.9
  Adjusted 24.1 23.9 23.1** 22.7 22.4 22.4
Median Am
  Unadjusted 23.1 23.1 22.4** 21.5 21.5 21.6
  Adjusted 23.9 23.7 22.9** 22.5 22.2 22.2
M–1 PPR (pM)
  Unadjusted 0.98 0.97 0.96** 0.97 0.97 0.96
  Adjusted 0.97 0.97 0.96** 0.97 0.97 0.96
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 1.2 1.2 1.3** 1.4 1.3 1.4
  Adjusted 1.2 1.2 1.3** 1.4 1.3 1.4
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
  Adjusted 1.5 1.5 1.5* 1.6 1.6 1.6
1–2 PPR (p1)
  Unadjusted 0.91 0.89 0.86** 0.95 0.92* 0.91**
  Adjusted 0.91 0.89 0.86** 0.94 0.92* 0.91**
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 2.6 2.7 2.9** 2.3 2.4 2.6**
  Adjusted 2.6 2.7 2.9** 2.4 2.4 2.6**
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 2.7 2.7 2.8** 2.5 2.6 2.6*
  Adjusted 2.7 2.7 2.8** 2.5 2.6 2.6
2–3 PPR (p2)
  Unadjusted 0.85 0.82 0.77** 0.90 0.87* 0.87*
  Adjusted 0.83 0.82 0.77** 0.89 0.86 0.86*
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 3.0 3.3** 2.6 2.8 2.9**
  Adjusted 2.9 3.0 3.3** 2.7 2.8 2.9**
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 2.9 3.2** 2.8 2.8 2.9*
  Adjusted 2.9 2.9 3.2** 2.8 2.8 2.9
3–4 PPR (p3)
  Unadjusted 0.78 0.70** 0.68** 0.83 0.76** 0.77**
  Adjusted 0.77 0.69** 0.68** 0.81 0.75** 0.76**
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 3.0 2.9 3.4** 2.8 2.9 3.0
  Adjusted 3.1 2.9 3.4** 2.9 2.9 3.0
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 3.0 2.9 3.2** 2.8 2.9 2.9
  Adjusted 3.0 2.9 3.2** 2.9 2.9 2.9
4–5 PPR (p4)
  Unadjusted 0.72 0.70 0.63** 0.74 0.74 0.69*
  Adjusted 0.71 0.68 0.62** 0.73 0.72 0.68
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 3.1 3.3** 2.7 3.0* 2.9*
  Adjusted 2.9 3.1 3.3** 2.7 3.0* 2.9
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 3.1 3.3** 2.8 3.0* 3.0
  Adjusted 2.9 3.1 3.3** 2.8 3.0* 2.9
5–6 PPR (p5)
  Unadjusted 0.76 0.70* 0.65** 0.77 0.72 0.74
  Adjusted 0.73 0.68* 0.64** 0.76 0.70* 0.73
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 3.0 3.0 3.2* 2.8 2.9 2.8
  Adjusted 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.8
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 3.0 3.0 3.3* 2.9 3.0 2.9
  Adjusted 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.9
6–7 PPR (p6)
  Unadjusted 0.74 0.69 0.72 0.81 0.74* 0.79
  Adjusted 0.73 0.68 0.71 0.78 0.74 0.77
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 3.0 3.2* 2.9 2.7 3.4**
  Adjusted 2.8 3.0 3.1* 2.8 2.7 3.3**
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.3**
  Adjusted 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.3*
7+–8+ PPR (p7+)
  Unadjusted 0.71 0.66* 0.64* 0.82 0.79 0.78
  Adjusted 0.70 0.65* 0.64* 0.82 0.78 0.77
Mean CBI
  Unadjusted 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.1
  Adjusted 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.0
Median CBI
  Unadjusted 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1
  Adjusted 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.1
TFR Unadjusted 4.20 3.77** 3.43** 5.47 4.81 4.48**
Adjusted 3.97 3.63** 3.34** 5.15 5.28 4.41**
TMFR Unadjusted 4.71 4.12** 3.65** 5.78 5.23 4.73**
Adjusted 4.53 4.02** 3.58** 5.52 5.81 4.69**

Notes: Adjusted trends control for both urban/rural residence and education. Am denotes age at first marriage, and CBI denotes closed birth interval. The calculation of TFR and TMFR utilizes not only the PPRs shown in the table (except for p7+, which is not used) but also higher-order PPRs that are not shown (see the footnote to Table 3). One or more asterisks after a quantity indicate that the quantity differs significantly from the corresponding quantity in the reference category. All tests of statistical significance are two-tailed tests.

a

Reference category.

*

p ≤ .05;

**

p ≤ .01