TABLE 1.
Determinants of Provincial Health Care Funding Allocations: South Africa Health System Trust Database, 2007
| Covariates (year prior to funding allocations) | Unadjusted Bivariate Regression,a b (P) | Adjusted Multivariate Regression |
|
| Separate Models,b b (P) | Full Model, b (P) | ||
| Disease burden | |||
| Antenatal HIV prevalence | –0.31% (.358) | −0.07% (.863) | 0.07% (.8) |
| Infant mortality rates | −0.31% (< .001) | −0.37% (< .001) | −0.14% (.059) |
| Crude death rates | 0.02% (.897) | 0.28% (.121) | 0.013% (.913) |
| Model R2 | R2 = 0.21 | ||
| Treasury formula for economic activity | |||
| Income level | 0.26% (< .001) | −0.0002% (.998) | −0.37% (< .001) |
| Rural dummy | −23.41% (< .001) | −28.58% (< .001) | −4.34% (.504) |
| Public-sector dependents | −0.05% (.196) | −0.11% (.004) | −0.13% (.186) |
| Model R2 | R2 = 0.48 | ||
| Health system capacity | |||
| Hospitals | 0.26% (< .001) | 0.24% (< .001) | 0.24% (< .001) |
| Doctors | 0.08% (.069) | 0.27% (< .001) | 0.49% (< .001) |
| Nurses | −0.04% (.174) | −0.12% (.001) | −0.20% (< .001) |
| Model R2 | R2 = 0.73 | R2 = 0.85 | |
Note. The log of real public health spending per capita is the dependent variable. Parameter estimates are the percentage increase in the dependent variable given a 1% increase in the covariate (elasticity). Results were similar when evaluating the relative proportion of resources allocated to each province, rather than differences in the absolute levels of resources. The number of provinces is n = 9; the number of province-years is n = 54.
Results are presented from 9 bivariate regression models.
Results are presented from 3 multivariate regression models using variables for disease burden, Treasury formula for economic activity, and absorptive capacity.