TABLE 3.
Estimated Medical Expenditure Savings Following a 5% Reduction in Prevalence of Short-Run and Medium-Run Modifiable Medical Conditions, by State
| Short Run Savings (in Millions) |
Medium Run Savings (in Millions) |
|||||||||||
| State | Total Savings, $ | Medicaid Total, $ | Medicaid State Portion, $ | Medicaid Federal Portion, $ | Medicare Savings, $ | Other Payer Savings, $ | Total Savings, $ | Medicaid Total, $ | Medicaid State Portion, $ | Medicaid Federal Portion, $ | Medicare Savings, $ | Other Payer Savings, $ |
| Alabama | 150.9 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 14.8 | 122.5 | 449.1 | 35.9 | 11.6 | 24.3 | 143.0 | 270.3 |
| Alaska | 22.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 15.9 | 57.5 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 38.6 |
| Arizona | 124.3 | 26.7 | 9.0 | 17.7 | 25.4 | 72.2 | 351.2 | 65.4 | 22.1 | 43.3 | 125.3 | 160.5 |
| Arkansas | 83.1 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 67.4 | 252.8 | 20.5 | 5.5 | 15.0 | 80.8 | 151.5 |
| California | 882.0 | 157.0 | 78.5 | 78.5 | 166.0 | 559.0 | 2493.1 | 373.0 | 186.5 | 186.5 | 818.9 | 1301.2 |
| Colorado | 105.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 15.7 | 77.2 | 300.9 | 30.9 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 83.3 | 186.6 |
| Connecticut | 71.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 17.5 | 40.6 | 220.9 | 36.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 100.4 | 84.5 |
| Delaware | 33.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 26.5 | 92.4 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 23.9 | 58.5 |
| District of Columbia | 35.3 | 7.2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 25.6 | 82.0 | 15.8 | 4.7 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 50.7 |
| Florida | 633.8 | 48.8 | 21.1 | 27.7 | 71.6 | 513.4 | 1856.6 | 123.4 | 53.3 | 70.1 | 631.3 | 1101.9 |
| Georgia | 251.2 | 31.3 | 11.6 | 19.8 | 20.4 | 199.4 | 678.9 | 79.3 | 29.3 | 50.0 | 178.9 | 420.7 |
| Hawaii | 41.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 6.9 | 29.0 | 93.7 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 24.6 | 58.2 |
| Idaho | 30.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 22.2 | 89.4 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 26.1 | 55.2 |
| Illinois | 542.1 | 22.3 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 107.7 | 412.2 | 1233.3 | 70.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 357.5 | 805.8 |
| Indiana | 267.2 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 51.7 | 206.0 | 607.9 | 28.7 | 10.7 | 18.0 | 172.1 | 407.1 |
| Iowa | 126.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 24.2 | 98.0 | 288.6 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 78.7 | 195.7 |
| Kansas | 119.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 23.6 | 92.3 | 276.9 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 79.6 | 185.5 |
| Kentucky | 135.9 | 16.3 | 4.9 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 108.4 | 432.9 | 50.0 | 15.1 | 34.9 | 119.3 | 263.6 |
| Louisiana | 142.6 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 10.0 | 15.8 | 112.9 | 423.5 | 35.3 | 9.7 | 25.6 | 143.7 | 244.6 |
| Maine | 34.1 | 13.1 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 14.4 | 101.2 | 30.1 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 32.7 | 38.3 |
| Maryland | 200.2 | 17.6 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 18.1 | 164.5 | 527.2 | 44.9 | 22.4 | 22.4 | 146.3 | 336.1 |
| Massachusetts | 134.9 | 38.8 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 31.4 | 64.7 | 450.4 | 110.1 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 192.6 | 147.7 |
| Michigan | 440.0 | 15.8 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 99.8 | 324.4 | 998.3 | 52.9 | 22.2 | 30.7 | 326.4 | 619.0 |
| Minnesota | 233.4 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 37.4 | 186.0 | 520.8 | 33.8 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 117.4 | 369.6 |
| Mississippi | 92.3 | 12.2 | 2.9 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 70.8 | 274.8 | 34.0 | 8.1 | 25.9 | 91.9 | 149.0 |
| Missouri | 262.2 | 16.9 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 54.9 | 190.3 | 610.7 | 54.6 | 20.5 | 34.1 | 181.2 | 374.9 |
| Montana | 24.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 17.5 | 67.1 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 19.9 | 40.2 |
| Nebraska | 77.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 14.6 | 60.8 | 174.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 47.2 | 120.3 |
| Nevada | 54.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 10.2 | 39.9 | 163.4 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 51.9 | 99.8 |
| New Hampshire | 25.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.5 | 17.6 | 73.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 27.7 | 39.7 |
| New Jersey | 174.3 | 25.3 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 43.9 | 105.2 | 535.5 | 69.7 | 34.8 | 34.8 | 259.9 | 205.9 |
| New Mexico | 48.7 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 30.5 | 131.2 | 22.1 | 6.4 | 15.7 | 36.0 | 73.0 |
| New York | 462.0 | 179.6 | 89.8 | 89.8 | 104.3 | 178.1 | 1402.1 | 449.0 | 224.5 | 224.5 | 574.4 | 378.6 |
| North Carolina | 271.6 | 34.5 | 12.4 | 22.1 | 22.9 | 214.2 | 787.1 | 91.8 | 33.0 | 58.8 | 213.1 | 482.3 |
| North Dakota | 29.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 23.6 | 66.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 17.3 | 46.0 |
| Ohio | 531.6 | 23.9 | 9.4 | 14.5 | 106.3 | 401.3 | 1232.9 | 76.7 | 30.1 | 46.6 | 359.8 | 796.4 |
| Oklahoma | 102.4 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 10.3 | 85.0 | 320.4 | 20.0 | 6.6 | 13.4 | 105.1 | 195.3 |
| Oregon | 95.2 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 14.7 | 66.9 | 282.9 | 35.8 | 14.0 | 21.8 | 82.5 | 164.5 |
| Pennsylvania | 271.8 | 53.1 | 24.4 | 28.7 | 68.7 | 150.0 | 871.7 | 133.7 | 61.4 | 72.3 | 407.5 | 330.4 |
| Rhode Island | 22.7 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 11.7 | 74.5 | 18.0 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 30.0 | 26.6 |
| South Carolina | 137.6 | 16.0 | 4.8 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 109.7 | 415.1 | 43.7 | 13.2 | 30.5 | 113.6 | 257.8 |
| South Dakota | 32.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 25.4 | 74.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 20.0 | 51.0 |
| Tennessee | 199.2 | 36.1 | 13.1 | 23.0 | 16.8 | 146.3 | 621.2 | 98.2 | 35.6 | 62.5 | 164.9 | 358.1 |
| Texas | 630.6 | 45.8 | 18.1 | 27.7 | 60.4 | 524.3 | 1810.0 | 114.6 | 45.2 | 69.4 | 535.9 | 1159.5 |
| Utah | 43.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 31.7 | 119.8 | 14.2 | 4.0 | 10.2 | 33.6 | 71.9 |
| Vermont | 15.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 41.1 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 13.1 | 18.6 |
| Virginia | 223.3 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 17.2 | 194.4 | 611.0 | 31.7 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 154.3 | 424.9 |
| Washington | 169.1 | 23.1 | 11.2 | 11.9 | 22.7 | 123.3 | 481.4 | 61.6 | 29.9 | 31.7 | 124.5 | 295.3 |
| West Virginia | 69.3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 54.8 | 228.6 | 25.7 | 6.6 | 19.1 | 66.1 | 136.7 |
| Wisconsin | 259.1 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 43.4 | 207.2 | 578.6 | 26.1 | 11.1 | 15.0 | 136.0 | 416.5 |
| Wyoming | 13.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 10.3 | 39.0 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 10.0 | 24.8 |
| US estimatesa | 8981.8 | 774.9 | 311.0 | 463.9 | 1509.9 | 6697.0 | 24 705.1 | 2774.4 | 1203.6 | 1570.8 | 7904.6 | 14 289.7 |
Note. Data are for the US noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years and older. Medium-run savings are cumulative, assuming a 5% lower prevalence of short-run and medium-run conditions.
Source. Estimates were from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component, 2003–2005,15 pooled sample and normed to 2004 National Health Expenditure Accounts19 totals by state and payer and inflated to 2008 dollars.
a
US estimates are from the national spending model and are not column totals, which differed slightly from the national estimates because state estimates were from individual models for each state.