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Susceptible |
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Exposed |
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Asymptomatic |
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Symptomatic untreated |
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Symptomatic, treated day one of WOP |
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Symptomatic, treated day two of WOP |
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Recovered from
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Recovered from
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Recovered from
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Recovered from
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Parameters |
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Baseline transmission rate of infection |
variable |
with school closure decreasing after 70 days |
|
Mean incubation period |
3 days |
[21], [31]
|
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Mean infectious period of asymptomatic infection |
4.1 days |
[16]
|
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Mean infectious period of untreated symptomatic infection |
2.85 days |
[11], [28]
|
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Mean infectious period of symptomatic if treated on day one WOP |
1.05 days |
[28], [42]
|
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Mean infectious period of symptomatic if treated on day two WOP |
2 days |
[28], [42]
|
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Length of the WOP |
2 days |
[12], [27]
|
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Death rate of untreated symptomatic infection |
0.002/day |
[28]
|
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Death rate of symptomatic treated on day one of WOP |
0.0001/day |
[28]
|
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Death rate of symptomatic treated on day two of WOP |
0.0002/day |
[28]
|
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Relative infectiousness of asymptomatic infection |
0.071 |
[28]
|
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Relative infectiousness of untreated symptomatic infection |
0.143 |
[28]
|
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Relative infectiousness of treated (day one) symptomatic infection |
0.3 |
[28] and assumption |
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Relative infectiousness of treated (day two) symptomatic infection |
0.4 |
[28]
|
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Probability of developing symptoms |
0.6 |
[11], [16], [22], [24], [31]
|
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Maximum treatment level in WOP |
0.4 |
|